Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x217f15d80517f21e63be8b382e46e6404a765bd106021b8f1e52573a1fbd7f57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed No | 13c | 1,946$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 37c | 1,335$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.86 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 23c | 1,242$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.78 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 75c | 1,061$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.69 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 76c | 1,030$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.03 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 74c | 332.44$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 16c | 306.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 66c | 280.06$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 9c | 271.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked No | 15c | 265.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 78c | 197.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…4791backed No | 8c | 188$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 170.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…7c39backed Yes | 77c | 130.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 35c | 123.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…0fc5backed No | 13c | 117.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.