TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$323,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,485 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d40…09abbacked Yes3c30,209$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.29195.3%1 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes13c12,949$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.692326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes1c12,327$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.311813.6%16 W · 102 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+281.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes2c11,229$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.75250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes2c10,787$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4328021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd821…e8e3backed Yes16c5,952$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes2c5,337$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.981466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c4,851$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.75320%0 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes3c3,885$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.971379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c3,081$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.994754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes11c2,864$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.340643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes8c2,847$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes0c2,772$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes4c2,177$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.691422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeae…058dbacked No78c2,140$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.332475%18 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes8c2,009$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.881373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e6…fdcdbacked Yes5c1,998$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…f4bebacked Yes5c1,757$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386f…db83backed Yes1c1,751$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc81b…6ca9backed Yes7c1,614$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.09137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d74…596bbacked Yes2c1,492$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.99263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-92.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c1,476$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.652581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf921…be16backed Yes9c1,230$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.08429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,203$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.216785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes12c1,193$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.223411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes16c1,190$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.732937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes2c1,119$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.24140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes3c1,105$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.042270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes14c1,088$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes6c1,017$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.672683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes2c999.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.992825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+270.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes1c998.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.99714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c998.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.132417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0822…82efbacked Yes6c998.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.21540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3112…c69ebacked Yes15c991.88$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.73195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-92.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes15c984.69$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes2c939.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.461970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes3c854.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.07137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaec…f856backed Yes9c684.91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ef…3116backed Yes3c669.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.59306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes15c652.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.173542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x26ea…9982backed Yes3c606.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+168.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes18c603.42$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Yes23c506.59$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.351225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10013770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d17…a1b3backed No79c499.71$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.24650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5a…d5dabacked Yes5c499.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c8…b82abacked Yes2c485.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+703%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes3c426.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.761118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…77dfbacked Yes7c388.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes13c382.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.683644.4%16 W · 20 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+177.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x859d…fccbbacked Yes20c300$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+137%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f3…2822backed Yes33c291.49$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.512025%5 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b97…32f1backed Yes10c279.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes14c269.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.84318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe516…14ffbacked Yes6c249.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e93…0078backed Yes9c222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-62.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8bf…0d42backed Yes24c218.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…4201backed Yes9c215.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3516…df7ebacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes7c199.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick6cpaid+1,024.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes12c173.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-84.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes12c171.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.461288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41d3…9df1backed Yes29c166.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No71c149.9$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.473969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+48.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xceed…aca1backed Yes25c141.34$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes13c140$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes17c134.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.939940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f41…74aebacked Yes9c131.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed No73c128.94$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.741729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbeb…050ebacked Yes13c121.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb9…884cbacked Yes26c113.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x399b…35cdbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…d8f2backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No79c99.52$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.918162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes26c88.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.978521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2224…96e3backed Yes14c87.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6293…3c27backed Yes24c83.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes15c83.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes29c73.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.452454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+88.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes22c65.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.77520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744f…5f3dbacked Yes19c51.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.051533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e1…944abacked No80c50.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x465d…2576backed Yes30c49.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No72c44.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.32850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed No71c32.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.392673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b0…94cabacked No66c29.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59b…3c66backed No74c25.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No75c18.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e04…0d84backed No75c14.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.