TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 9-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,086 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes5c10,221$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7cb…83a5backed Yes37c8,737$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed Yes2c8,300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes7c7,392$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.78147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes23c7,337$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.683923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes2c6,920$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes19c6,662$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.0487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes21c6,509$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.5914019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc06d…62b0backed Yes1c6,340$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes7c6,101$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.9914213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c5,700$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.86320%0 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes6c5,137$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.54786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes8c4,941$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.36518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c4,605$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.654754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes1c4,520$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.611813.6%16 W · 102 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+281.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x77a6…4387backed Yes1c3,714$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes15c3,462$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.2412129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes28c3,018$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4819535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes5c2,773$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.881422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed No71c2,371$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.494654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…374fbacked Yes16c2,068$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.4380%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0344…2538backed Yes24c1,999$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,800$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.22417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes30c1,777$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.333330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No72c1,656$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.8458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca1…221abacked Yes1c1,349$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa455…1c6fbacked Yes8c1,268$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.74185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-79.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x428d…51b0backed Yes23c1,268$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,255$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.866785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked No77c1,132$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.422937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No58c995.95$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.37163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa03…8916backed Yes42c877.92$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c811.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.792581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes20c800$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+150.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes4c799.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.831915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes5c771.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.36140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes5c761.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5611720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac2…3f0abacked Yes4c475.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes7c459.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.411373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed No64c452.31$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.371729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15eb…491cbacked No78c428.37$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes5c424.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.532683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes24c412.58$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.588521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52c6…e00abacked Yes6c399.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes15c388.06$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3113624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd47a…4e85backed Yes20c372$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes5c359.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b71…cb46backed Yes31c330$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes5c326.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.985016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x744f…5f3dbacked Yes5c319.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.631533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102466.5%3 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Yes38c256.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.23825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6374…891fbacked Yes38c222.8$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.593455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64dd…9c88backed Yes5c218.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes7c199.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick6cpaid+1,024.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd33c…f93fbacked No59c170$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3798…804bbacked Yes7c166.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.651030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe547…5fb5backed No74c164.2$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.79666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed Yes30c157.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.172839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b33…9b98backed No64c152.1$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.76540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed Yes23c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+48.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No67c146.13$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5310067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes26c133.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.15726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes32c123.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9414340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes32c123.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9434848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd91…bfebbacked Yes40c121.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes40c120.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.561428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No72c107.84$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3811554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-84.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30a5…2ee0backed Yes23c99.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+289.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f41…74aebacked Yes19c99.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked Yes43c97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7118162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c6…362abacked Yes20c95.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf648…05c7backed No79c87.22$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.321154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227d…1a26backed Yes23c84.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.689063.3%57 W · 33 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x33e7…780bbacked No66c77.76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.44742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6ab…7085backed Yes28c69.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed No61c63.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.661118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b02…8b3bbacked Yes38c61.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ca…51a5backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37f…bcddbacked No68c49.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac25…147abacked Yes36c48.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x698a…e142backed No77c48.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.271216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd13a…76c2backed No63c46.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c6…03b5backed Yes26c45.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8b…3ab8backed No62c39.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff5…e5e0backed Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbaec…f856backed No75c30.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c2…8b8abacked No64c29.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30cb…63bcbacked No76c28.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44eb…0f34backed No72c27.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c9…e482backed No67c26.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b54…44d9backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+71.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f69…f5acbacked No73c23.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a28…0e02backed No80c23.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb32…4201backed No80c22.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88bd…c088backed No66c22.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.