Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f641d60541aecf56b56c0e541e26bc43a5df6c6ad8101691bdad64b033958ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $320,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,344 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d40…09abbacked Yes | 1c | 34,719$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.95 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,074$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 14,069$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,700$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 4c | 8,373$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.12 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes | 0c | 8,256$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 17c | 5,869$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.75 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 7c | 4,420$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.32 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 7c | 3,822$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…878ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,269$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.16 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 3,001$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 6c | 2,645$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.86 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,049$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 1,276$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,268$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,235$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Yes | 6c | 865.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 814.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 777.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5a…d5dabacked Yes | 8c | 759.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 13c | 747.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…51afbacked Yes | 6c | 519.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…14ffbacked Yes | 3c | 516.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Yes | 13c | 496.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…5cc2backed Yes | 9c | 345$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Yes | 4c | 334.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…0d42backed Yes | 14c | 254.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 11c | 185.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…36d5backed Yes | 7c | 181.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 6c | 178.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 12c | 87.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.