Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e37b40c6d699a2b8b5a983fa043bd3d5170cc49ac6532f9d25b0bfe317c06ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,733 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,398$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 13,425$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,245$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,068$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 2c | 6,128$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 0c | 5,975$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabc5…89c5backed Yes | 0c | 5,488$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 8c | 3,005$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.38 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 1,871$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,764$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,621$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 1,513$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…0564backed Yes | 8c | 1,247$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…d932backed Yes | 8c | 1,237$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,235$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 981.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 6c | 439.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 434.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…bfebbacked Yes | 9c | 323.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 295.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 8c | 288.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 7c | 285.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 11c | 180.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…3ab8backed Yes | 10c | 150.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 10c | 144.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Yes | 10c | 124.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 10c | 104.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.