NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5651c1a38cffd9960c0d31c55ceaa1acb5222bbd982ed4967644f5100fba1c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Red Wings, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $450,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,344 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Lightning | 67c | 240,000$160,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,464.64 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Red Wings | 33c | 133,231$43,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,966.36 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Red Wings | 33c | 66,091$21,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,862.12 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 79c | 30,452$24,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,278.3 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning | 67c | 30,000$20,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,900 | 260 | 58.8%153 W · 107 L | +17.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Red Wings | 18c | 30,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.97 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Red Wings | 33c | 22,856$7,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,542.49 | 457 | 51.6%236 W · 221 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Lightning | 67c | 21,404$14,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,964.46 | 274 | 48.9%134 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Red Wings | 33c | 14,000$4,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.49 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 65c | 8,451$5,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.22 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Red Wings | 34c | 8,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Red Wings | 33c | 7,122$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350.24 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 33c | 6,556$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.01 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Red Wings | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.92 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Red Wings | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings | 35c | 4,989$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.73 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Red Wings | 33c | 4,540$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.2 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Red Wings | 33c | 3,221$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.92 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Red Wings | 33c | 3,045$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Red Wings | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Lightning | 64c | 2,800$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Red Wings | 36c | 2,750$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lightning | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Lightning | 66c | 2,292$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.13 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Red Wings | 26c | 2,285$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.59 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Red Wings | 33c | 2,222$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.19 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Red Wings | 34c | 2,000$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Red Wings | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Red Wings | 8c | 1,899$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Lightning | 67c | 1,646$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.97 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 76c | 1,602$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.38 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Red Wings | 34c | 1,600$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.4 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Red Wings | 33c | 1,535$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.59 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Red Wings | 23c | 1,500$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Red Wings | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…ba5bbacked Red Wings | 33c | 1,481$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…53a1backed Red Wings | 36c | 1,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings | 34c | 1,259$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.7 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Red Wings | 24c | 1,169$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.99 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings | 33c | 1,168$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.36 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Red Wings | 35c | 1,150$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…0613backed Red Wings | 25c | 1,100$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.98 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…c3c3backed Red Wings | 34c | 1,032$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 215 | 34.4%74 W · 141 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Red Wings | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Red Wings | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Red Wings | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Red Wings | 33c | 1,000$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Red Wings | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning | 67c | 999.95$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.43 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Red Wings | 23c | 877.89$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Red Wings | 27c | 875.26$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 65c | 870.77$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.77 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…f3f0backed Lightning | 67c | 751.7$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.54 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Red Wings | 35c | 716.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Red Wings | 35c | 712$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.01 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Lightning | 79c | 701$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Red Wings | 33c | 660.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Red Wings | 19c | 638.74$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Lightning | 67c | 627.8$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.8 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Lightning | 75c | 607.22$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd350…8ae8backed Red Wings | 30c | 602.06$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…11c3backed Lightning | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Lightning | 64c | 598$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Red Wings | 34c | 589.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning | 69c | 589.83$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.83 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…9881backed Lightning | 68c | 589.1$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.1 | 306 | 57.8%177 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Red Wings | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…6d7bbacked Red Wings | 33c | 555$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Red Wings | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…3a5dbacked Lightning | 68c | 456.55$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…5b90backed Lightning | 68c | 438.31$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8865…ad52backed Lightning | 68c | 435.74$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Red Wings | 33c | 430$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 67c | 426.22$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning | 69c | 417.96$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Red Wings | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed Red Wings | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 385 | 55.6%214 W · 171 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Red Wings | 8c | 394.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 332 | 34.3%114 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Lightning | 65c | 389.58$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Red Wings | 35c | 389$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Red Wings | 33c | 382.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09de…49b8backed Red Wings | 35c | 374.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…cef1backed Lightning | 68c | 364.6$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…98b4backed Lightning | 68c | 360.35$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Red Wings | 35c | 357.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 299 | 46.8%140 W · 159 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…6089backed Red Wings | 35c | 342.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Lightning | 70c | 335.15$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 481 | 57.2%275 W · 206 L | +21.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…5d2cbacked Red Wings | 35c | 328.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…4b13backed Lightning | 63c | 318.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Lightning | 66c | 315.01$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…167cbacked Lightning | 68c | 312.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…87dcbacked Red Wings | 35c | 312.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Red Wings | 14c | 310.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Red Wings | 14c | 306$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked Red Wings | 33c | 306$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Red Wings | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Red Wings | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 535 | 46.4%248 W · 287 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Lightningthis page
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.