TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Red Wings vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Red Wings, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$450,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,344 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning67c240,000$160,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,464.6467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Red Wings33c133,231$43,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,966.3651550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Red Wings33c66,091$21,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,862.1261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning79c30,452$24,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,278.31,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning67c30,000$20,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,90026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Red Wings18c30,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.9748545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Red Wings33c22,856$7,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,542.4945751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Lightning67c21,404$14,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,964.4627448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Red Wings33c14,000$4,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,619.4961748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning65c8,451$5,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.221,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Red Wings34c8,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,72050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Red Wings33c7,122$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.2461953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings33c6,556$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.012,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Red Wings33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.9289547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Red Wings34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings35c4,989$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.731,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Red Wings33c4,540$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.222946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Red Wings33c3,221$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.9291945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Red Wings33c3,045$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00540356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Red Wings35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Lightning64c2,800$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0083650%18 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Red Wings36c2,750$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8251,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lightning67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Lightning66c2,292$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.1315651.3%80 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Red Wings26c2,285$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.5957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Red Wings33c2,222$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.1910850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Red Wings34c2,000$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67889249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Red Wings35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9944551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Red Wings8c1,899$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.424912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Lightning67c1,646$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.976647%31 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning76c1,602$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.382,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Red Wings34c1,600$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.468449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Red Wings33c1,535$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.5964242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Red Wings23c1,500$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.538046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Red Wings35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Red Wings33c1,481$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4887149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Red Wings36c1,300$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46813446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings34c1,259$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.71,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Red Wings24c1,169$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings33c1,168$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.361,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Red Wings35c1,150$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.4838445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd058…0613backed Red Wings25c1,100$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.983751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4e…c3c3backed Red Wings34c1,032$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35021534.4%74 W · 141 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Red Wings1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Red Wings34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34054047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Red Wings33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33023047.4%109 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Red Wings33c1,000$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33312646.8%59 W · 67 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Red Wings33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3309157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning67c999.95$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.4391653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Red Wings23c877.89$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Red Wings27c875.26$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.9416235.2%57 W · 105 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning65c870.77$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.772,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Lightning67c751.7$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.5413856.5%78 W · 60 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+32.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Red Wings35c716.1$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Red Wings35c712$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0186852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Lightning79c701$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.426355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Red Wings33c660.6$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21832150.8%163 W · 158 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Red Wings19c638.74$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3635829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Lightning67c627.8$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.847256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning75c607.22$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.885464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd350…8ae8backed Red Wings30c602.06$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba1f…11c3backed Lightning66c600$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Lightning64c598$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.282560%15 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Red Wings34c589.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010850.9%55 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning69c589.83$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.831,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Lightning68c589.1$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.130657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Red Wings18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7736…6d7bbacked Red Wings33c555$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Red Wings4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7327334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.570547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6383…3a5dbacked Lightning68c456.55$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.55560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc60…5b90backed Lightning68c438.31$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.71758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8865…ad52backed Lightning68c435.74$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.871478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.34per pick44cpaid+84%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Red Wings33c430$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.918344.8%82 W · 101 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lightning67c426.22$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0866552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning69c417.96$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.191,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Red Wings34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a47…fcf3backed Red Wings33c400$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13238555.6%214 W · 171 L+24.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Red Wings8c394.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0933234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Lightning65c389.58$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3548050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Red Wings35c389$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.133950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Red Wings33c382.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12624952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09de…49b8backed Red Wings35c374.15$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f6…cef1backed Lightning68c364.6$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc056…98b4backed Lightning68c360.35$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.672343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cb…bc54backed Red Wings35c357.14$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12529946.8%140 W · 159 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eca…6089backed Red Wings35c342.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+39.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Lightning70c335.15$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5248157.2%275 W · 206 L+21.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff1a…5d2cbacked Red Wings35c328.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Lightning63c318.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.456266.1%41 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Lightning66c315.01$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.17746.8%36 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa627…167cbacked Lightning68c312.81$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.412343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…87dcbacked Red Wings35c312.03$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Red Wings14c310.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4439344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Red Wings14c306$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.841,14051.5%587 W · 553 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b2…ffcabacked Red Wings33c306$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.677556%42 W · 33 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Red Wings33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Red Wings34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10253546.4%248 W · 287 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.