NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb437e8dadc0cd0ff7a464023cc318e7583a899ff3f69276eb835b31ae76289b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,935 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Over | 46c | 2,454$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.74 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 2,057$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.34 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 1,280$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.13 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 56c | 1,150$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 55c | 986.2$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.91 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Over | 45c | 666.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 54c | 604$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 45c | 391$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 361.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.18 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…e589backed Under | 55c | 334.28$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Under | 55c | 331.41$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 268$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…3a5dbacked Under | 55c | 263.64$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 46c | 225.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 46c | 165.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…c442backed Under | 56c | 95.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 94.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Under | 54c | 92.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 55c | 80.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 54c | 48.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 54c | 46.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…d03abacked Under | 55c | 40.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…32f1backed Under | 56c | 35.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Under | 54c | 29.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34e…9d58backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 23.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…bce5backed Under | 55c | 22.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. LightningLightning won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.