NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc45d0b45023ba38a2aeb563364d7c1be0339cf0935e6a1cd704c98350a6222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,620 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 1,382$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 57c | 1,050$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.2 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Over | 59c | 339.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 43c | 330.11$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 57c | 248.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Over | 59c | 244.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 231.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 173.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.21 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 43c | 165$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…01c7backed Over | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 43c | 135.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 134.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…bba6backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 47.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 41.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 66c | 38.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 43c | 36.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Under | 66c | 33.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Under | 56c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Red Wings vs. LightningLightning won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.