NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda42b93dd78c5f4e3c0b6bfbf2635a1eb7d0f3bdac313af6c4bd7b71636ce5fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 46c | 4,364$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.05 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Red Wings | 57c | 2,222$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.54 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 54c | 1,886$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.44 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Red Wings | 54c | 1,426$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.2 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lightning | 43c | 465.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.86 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lightning | 43c | 372.09$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.09 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Lightning | 43c | 352.94$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.18 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 45c | 329.2$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.06 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Red Wings | 57c | 260$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Red Wings | 57c | 251.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings | 55c | 245.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Lightning | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…4c0bbacked Lightning | 45c | 222.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Lightning | 43c | 145$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 43c | 135$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Lightning | 49c | 122.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lightning | 45c | 111.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Red Wings | 54c | 105.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Red Wings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…8341backed Red Wings | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Red Wings | 55c | 93.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Red Wings | 56c | 84.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Red Wings | 55c | 79.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Red Wings | 56c | 61.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Lightning | 43c | 61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…9d70backed Red Wings | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 43c | 46.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Lightning | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Red Wings | 56c | 35.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Red Wings | 56c | 25.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Red Wings | 55c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Red Wings | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. LightningLightning won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.