China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dacd626e7e6bdf41d922968120ecf052f0e044491048fe067f62c04d8e16ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 2c | 2,512$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,238$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…ede0backed Yes | 17c | 1,648$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 4c | 1,545$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +437.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Yes | 11c | 1,330$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,258$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 10c | 1,233$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c229backed Yes | 2c | 1,128$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…b86fbacked Yes | 3c | 908.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…4ce9backed Yes | 6c | 814.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 11c | 793.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 752.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…8efebacked Yes | 14c | 728.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed Yes | 15c | 670$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 623.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 593.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 591.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd557…2538backed Yes | 7c | 587$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes | 11c | 483$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 2c | 454.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +506.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 3c | 453.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 438.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 371.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 14c | 361.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…9b51backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…3fe9backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 16c | 297.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…a122backed Yes | 4c | 270.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf796…8689backed Yes | 5c | 255.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc364…bb86backed Yes | 8c | 248.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 5c | 241.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…131ebacked Yes | 18c | 241.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Yes | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…085ebacked Yes | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…b741backed Yes | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 208.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 16c | 199.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…9581backed Yes | 8c | 152.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…5b32backed Yes | 10c | 148.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…1120backed Yes | 20c | 133.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…b394backed Yes | 17c | 133.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a90…9690backed Yes | 9c | 133.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 130.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…c8c9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b0…94cabacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 31c | 40.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 40c | 28.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?this page
- Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?Yes won
- Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.