China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379e8e6cfbdcc689d3859efe5f5bfa4327c33c2a3042fd0c06c125a19fdeb967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 4,093$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,275$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 2,003$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…e82dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,569$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 4c | 1,374$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,311$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 11c | 1,301$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 4c | 1,247$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +211%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 76c | 1,108$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c9…263cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +2,527.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…3a47backed Yes | 14c | 990.02$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 18c | 949$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 77c | 878.31$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.07 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 748.23$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 6c | 722.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 649.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 643.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…f945backed Yes | 15c | 630$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 16c | 549.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 6c | 505.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 504.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…b86fbacked Yes | 4c | 497.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 449.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 4c | 441.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…4ce9backed Yes | 12c | 422.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…63e1backed Yes | 3c | 418.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 407$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c229backed Yes | 4c | 394.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3706…9462backed Yes | 30c | 375.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 367.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 65c | 332.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 323.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 302.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 76c | 280.3$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6158backed Yes | 25c | 272.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 20c | 261.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 6c | 248.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 234.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 234.59$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7041…8b1cbacked Yes | 6c | 222.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…1120backed Yes | 18c | 218.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…00febacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…ac46backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0525…c737backed Yes | 17c | 178.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 148.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 132.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes | 23c | 131.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 77c | 118.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 118.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…8f69backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 9c | 115.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 26c | 114.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 79c | 113.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed Yes | 21c | 106.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…b75cbacked No | 80c | 106.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e3…3dffbacked Yes | 28c | 100.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…7f8fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4b…ade7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…ccdcbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…b040backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…629fbacked Yes | 30c | 98.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf796…8689backed Yes | 21c | 95.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 11c | 94.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…4ab0backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…5b32backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…f17abacked No | 76c | 81.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…78d7backed Yes | 61c | 81.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…29c3backed Yes | 24c | 72.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…c462backed No | 80c | 67.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 80c | 64.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…9670backed No | 76c | 59.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…dfe7backed Yes | 27c | 55.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 34c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…afa7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed No | 79c | 46.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 43.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ac…bd73backed Yes | 62c | 42.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4a…f704backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 74c | 25.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…ecf0backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…e1abbacked No | 80c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?this page
- Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?Yes won
- Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?No won
- Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.