China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb275aaf74777d2ed7af289a836b8cb73df52eb927ddbc1552eed4e8cc0fc8d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 30c | 3,800$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 61c | 3,580$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 1,799$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Yes | 73c | 1,397$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 27c | 1,200$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 32c | 1,130$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +157%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +2,527.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 966.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 69c | 863.54$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.54 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 2c | 849.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…9f32backed Yes | 12c | 827.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 9c | 784.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…396bbacked Yes | 37c | 757.71$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…8077backed No | 69c | 736.29$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked No | 76c | 728.19$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 44c | 703.75$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 27c | 670.15$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.55 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…649cbacked Yes | 33c | 599.85$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 55c | 593.22$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 49c | 516.96$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.96 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 8c | 469.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +211%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2718…6e95backed Yes | 21c | 465.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 16c | 451.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…dd2bbacked Yes | 44c | 449.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 24c | 434.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…6043backed No | 72c | 418.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 59c | 418$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 415.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 397.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 22c | 373.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 370.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 56c | 358.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…e72abacked Yes | 18c | 331.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…7ddabacked Yes | 5c | 308.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 56c | 308.18$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d0…fcf7backed No | 57c | 307.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 78c | 296.43$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked No | 17c | 289.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +299.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…2e82backed No | 73c | 277.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…37a8backed Yes | 16c | 261.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c12…62ccbacked No | 20c | 255.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140b…9a56backed Yes | 18c | 239.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 233.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 65c | 219.29$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 25c | 219.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 216.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bce…42f1backed No | 41c | 210$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…4333backed Yes | 29c | 206.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 28c | 205$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd53…25e7backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…3b20backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +127%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c9…263cbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e0f6backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e09…3250backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 193.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…76f3backed Yes | 33c | 178.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +160%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…00febacked Yes | 11c | 178.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 175.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc413…4475backed No | 45c | 148.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed Yes | 11c | 140.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…2a88backed Yes | 58c | 137.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed No | 73c | 136.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb480…6db0backed Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3a…d3c4backed No | 77c | 129.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 119.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…ca36backed No | 42c | 119.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked No | 69c | 109.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +325.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 107.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 101.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10a0…dc15backed No | 68c | 100.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +226.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…9a65backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde4…7bfdbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +190.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283f…b2eebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…043abacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…b040backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…ec5ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 66c | 99.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…096cbacked No | 40c | 98.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 67c | 98.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 16c | 96.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?this page
- Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?Yes won
- Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?No won
- Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.