China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6ab2f71d3ed064621ea9917ee3e6b8fc526c86d48f49f5ce62e350005b677f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 2,706$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 4c | 1,721$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…ca2dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,692$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 17c | 1,499$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.82 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 6c | 1,202$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 1,133$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,075$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2718…6e95backed Yes | 9c | 1,069$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 2c | 861.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…79a3backed Yes | 6c | 819.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 741.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 734.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 653.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 4c | 649.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c9…263cbacked Yes | 19c | 600$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked No | 68c | 548.31$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +211%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 67c | 499.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 476.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 376.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 67c | 366.38$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 3c | 347.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 14c | 337.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…6a70backed Yes | 16c | 335.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 334.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb480…6db0backed Yes | 8c | 330$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…725abacked Yes | 4c | 322.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ce21backed No | 65c | 299.96$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 47c | 279.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…15c6backed Yes | 36c | 260.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…1679backed No | 66c | 256.91$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 71c | 237.89$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…d621backed No | 78c | 220.26$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +119%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…1120backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 66c | 196.04$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…ca75backed No | 76c | 186.91$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 178.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…3fe9backed Yes | 19c | 176.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6599…ac95backed Yes | 14c | 174.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 33c | 169.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 18c | 168.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…e05dbacked Yes | 34c | 161.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 34c | 147.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…f05abacked Yes | 7c | 134.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…7ffabacked No | 75c | 133.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 8c | 132.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…afc3backed No | 72c | 109.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…b040backed No | 77c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…375ebacked Yes | 20c | 106.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b0b0backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…afa7backed Yes | 20c | 100.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…c8c9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c69…27cebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +157%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…163ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…bb8fbacked No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 75c | 97.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…131ebacked Yes | 37c | 96.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 41c | 90.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 31c | 82.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 74.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 32c | 72.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…9e60backed Yes | 34c | 67.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked No | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…abb3backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 34c | 59.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…b394backed Yes | 34c | 56.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes | 32c | 49.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0332…fe96backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…3944backed Yes | 34c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed Yes | 33c | 38.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…d5b1backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b22…5619backed No | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?this page
- Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?Yes won
- Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.