China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecbc0d8411219bcbf1601cd2d5dc6923f4d3497e5f23f3a45f888cf2ce306591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $200,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d8b…48c8backed No | 0c | 15,256$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…dd2bbacked Yes | 54c | 12,840$6,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,846.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…7310backed No | 1c | 10,410$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed No | 26c | 9,212$2,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 3c | 6,928$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 45c | 5,773$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 79c | 5,522$4,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 24c | 5,203$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.73 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed No | 39c | 5,015$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 20c | 5,003$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,757$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…8eadbacked No | 65c | 3,857$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ec…64b6backed No | 4c | 3,364$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked No | 50c | 3,236$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 64c | 2,643$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked No | 24c | 2,318$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…dcadbacked No | 34c | 2,200$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 2c | 1,893$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 75c | 1,842$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…4818backed Yes | 38c | 1,808$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 20c | 1,514$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed No | 15c | 1,476$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 66c | 1,449$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.91 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 1,353$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 1,302$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 78c | 1,274$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.24 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 1c | 1,205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 53c | 1,200$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 1,199$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.37 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 4c | 1,187$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 49c | 1,169$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +453.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 1,138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 76c | 1,100$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 15c | 1,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 34c | 992.62$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…6bf7backed Yes | 48c | 948.24$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked No | 3c | 911.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 7c | 895.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 3c | 861.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed No | 69c | 799.99$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 56c | 726.93$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.21 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…bc0cbacked No | 22c | 707.24$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…e4f3backed No | 14c | 703.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked No | 3c | 696.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 3c | 683.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 20c | 679.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 36c | 603.07$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 42c | 594.89$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…51a3backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 80c | 496.06$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…8f4ebacked No | 4c | 483.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71b…d9c1backed Yes | 79c | 466.24$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…1120backed Yes | 39c | 449.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 28c | 428.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee94…2cdebacked No | 5c | 417.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…26d0backed Yes | 53c | 413.64$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 408.89$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.46 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 49c | 400.79$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…649cbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 368.35$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…2a84backed Yes | 67c | 365.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 360.89$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…240bbacked No | 56c | 354.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 61c | 350$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 29c | 326.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 78c | 324.69$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 42c | 316.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4530…d028backed No | 63c | 315.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 67c | 304.7$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +127%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 15c | 303.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 52c | 299.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 72c | 299.53$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 41c | 295.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…4ce9backed No | 4c | 269.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…1a95backed Yes | 38c | 261.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…3fe9backed Yes | 40c | 256.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 52c | 249.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…08f0backed No | 40c | 246.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…3c97backed No | 14c | 232.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…fabfbacked No | 34c | 221.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…8819backed No | 16c | 216.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…b8d7backed Yes | 33c | 210.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed No | 19c | 207.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed No | 10c | 206.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 28c | 205.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c12…62ccbacked No | 25c | 200.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 10c | 200.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f7…2d80backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 70c | 199.81$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 46c | 195.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…3e90backed Yes | 42c | 193.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…600cbacked Yes | 52c | 192.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…8efebacked Yes | 54c | 186.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…df71backed No | 55c | 181.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?this page
- Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?No won
- Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?No won
- Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.