TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,183,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,188,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,183,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 805 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Golden Knights48c127,934$61,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,882.9728749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Hurricanes52c122,709$63,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,152.641,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Golden Knights48c104,167$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,0001650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Hurricanes52c100,000$52,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,999.874358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Hurricanes52c80,724$42,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,700.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Golden Knights10c76,757$7,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,988.6513841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Golden Knights47c50,000$23,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,499.8556649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights36c44,660$16,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,298.761,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Hurricanes53c38,000$20,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,8604551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Hurricanes52c24,000$12,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,52016656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Golden Knights9c21,649$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.3430259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Golden Knights30c20,280$6,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,092.2658841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Golden Knights48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6004542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Hurricanes52c18,204$9,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,737.8913251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Golden Knights48c18,004$8,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,557.611241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Golden Knights48c17,795$8,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,541.68345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Golden Knights29c16,209$4,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,777.742951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Golden Knights34c15,800$5,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3723158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Golden Knights22c15,248$3,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,328.412433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hurricanes72c13,114$9,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,710.0889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Golden Knights48c12,474$5,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,925.1215949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Golden Knights24c12,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8801816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1edc…77bfbacked Hurricanes53c9,305$4,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,373.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Golden Knights47c9,000$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.9415448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Golden Knights48c8,300$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9841861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Golden Knights48c8,161$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.7911141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Hurricanes63c8,010$5,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.811850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Hurricanes52c7,793$4,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,740.5467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Golden Knights48c7,292$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5006448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Hurricanes65c6,804$4,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.23756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Golden Knights27c6,748$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.163036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Hurricanes53c6,604$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,103.771566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Golden Knights41c6,155$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.5618853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7f…a160backed Golden Knights48c6,132$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc233…0561backed Hurricanes53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ab…8432backed Golden Knights17c5,785$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.81050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights47c5,046$2,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.4661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed Hurricanes53c5,033$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Hurricanes53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Golden Knights47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed Golden Knights3c5,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Hurricanes53c4,717$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights47c4,500$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1151,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc857…9e70backed Hurricanes53c4,434$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Golden Knights48c4,393$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.417737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bc1…692ebacked Golden Knights12c4,333$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Golden Knights29c4,183$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.3127037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a54…7c49backed Golden Knights35c3,978$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bae…178dbacked Hurricanes53c3,950$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc73a…8a83backed Golden Knights47c3,874$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Hurricanes52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.084555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Golden Knights41c3,471$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4403655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ca…7895backed Golden Knights47c3,402$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Hurricanes52c3,334$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.3261959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Hurricanes71c3,203$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.1650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Golden Knights48c3,125$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005954.2%32 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…64acbacked Golden Knights14c3,076$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked Hurricanes53c3,038$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.881346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Golden Knights1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Golden Knights48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4409751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Golden Knights48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Golden Knights47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.9885250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Golden Knights33c2,903$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Golden Knights2c2,833$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Hurricanes53c2,580$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.667247.2%34 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa51f…aa78backed Hurricanes53c2,345$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Golden Knights31c2,275$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.5711251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x176f…cd75backed Golden Knights11c2,241$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06f4…4c9bbacked Golden Knights48c2,061$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Golden Knights3c2,050$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5254418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3082…9b55backed Golden Knights48c2,050$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.93132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hurricanes67c2,018$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.683,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…0517backed Golden Knights48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Golden Knights48c2,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95033837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked Golden Knights47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9402236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Golden Knights46c1,979$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.6614946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights47c1,951$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.821,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed Hurricanes52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.07977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Hurricanes67c1,863$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.913943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Hurricanes67c1,837$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.0713850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1743…3d6fbacked Golden Knights25c1,830$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.63875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Hurricanes53c1,829$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Golden Knights48c1,628$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Golden Knights48c1,615$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7751428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Hurricanes53c1,518$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.392263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec11…953fbacked Hurricanes53c1,509$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Hurricanes53c1,509$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.435255.8%29 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Golden Knights48c1,503$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Golden Knights25c1,499$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3803423.5%8 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Golden Knights42c1,483$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62555446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a13…db82backed Golden Knights48c1,472$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.487948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Golden Knights36c1,415$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.4618840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Golden Knights30c1,325$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39843743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af1…1901backed Hurricanes52c1,250$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Hurricanes53c1,242$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.973174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0b00…5b09backed Golden Knights48c1,242$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5962839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…076ebacked Golden Knights7c1,136$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.