TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$545,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,389 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 593 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes38c22,585$8,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,050.982321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes79c19,466$15,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,077.8966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes49c9,290$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,730.2356329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes66c7,176$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.2157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No19c6,691$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.0662539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes63c6,181$3,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278.1728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes80c5,741$4,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.0915128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes47c5,476$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,887.3431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes67c5,440$3,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.292250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes35c5,319$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,461.0431621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No32c5,265$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.421,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed No62c4,970$3,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,105.5110824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes74c4,724$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.3221213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes52c4,062$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.387618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes68c4,040$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.5846521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad6…342bbacked Yes69c4,015$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No37c4,012$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.514219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes47c3,730$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.7348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No32c3,649$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.1413430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes56c3,146$1,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.0638828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes51c2,900$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.8257420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15b2…7cdabacked Yes67c2,876$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.292832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes77c2,871$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.585448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes52c2,658$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.7787917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes54c2,621$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.7453222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c2,427$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.5376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes45c2,226$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.8716427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c2,180$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.722,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No23c2,144$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.676822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes25c2,068$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.1663021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.6617628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes11c1,993$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.3522610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes39c1,933$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.1729227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed No41c1,873$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.6125944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes34c1,872$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.4627316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e78backed Yes75c1,793$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.25641.1%23 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No22c1,787$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.019423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked No25c1,774$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.49926.3%26 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No59c1,768$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.654274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes64c1,708$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.8850828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed No31c1,694$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.586823.5%16 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes60c1,657$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.5428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f34…9b08backed Yes71c1,649$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes66c1,646$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.3417434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe6…748fbacked Yes80c1,623$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.363461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd510…d56dbacked Yes77c1,620$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.7977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9476…28bcbacked Yes70c1,594$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47811838.1%45 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No67c1,392$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.6415649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes60c1,368$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.219550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked No34c1,344$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.432433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes38c1,310$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.0516056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No56c1,274$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.411512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No46c1,260$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes56c1,231$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.914928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes73c1,210$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.1322023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes60c1,175$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.247825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes67c1,100$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.8514025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes76c1,100$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.55719.3%11 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No4c1,090$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.221220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No16c999.96$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9918123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked No36c999.55$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.846825%17 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes40c975.03$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.697826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes60c925.96$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.3813116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes66c911.98$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.986420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed No52c905.15$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.852236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed Yes69c896.99$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes36c886.33$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.1463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No53c860.14$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.8731565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No33c856.1$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.641017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No54c851.75$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.8428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes58c840.89$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.179726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No35c835.91$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.4239518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes66c831.35$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.655240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes65c830$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f72…b128backed Yes53c811.3$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.644560%27 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes26c807.6$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.63724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes65c798.62$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1413926.6%37 W · 102 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dcf…1555backed Yes77c779.04$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.041030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes13c769.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.0613517.8%24 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes48c760.56$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.0420129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e4…1212backed Yes67c740.73$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes55c737.77$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.0814233.8%48 W · 94 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d9…780cbacked Yes27c733.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.851910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x181e…ace0backed Yes21c719.65$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.72326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Yes59c719.34$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.491540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aec…1236backed No72c715.96$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes56c702.6$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1118224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed No30c700$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21019925.1%50 W · 149 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes62c699.98$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.993933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02a…2bc6backed Yes69c691.57$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5694…501cbacked Yes78c690.4$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.92850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde99…8449backed Yes60c670.04$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.041850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No2c666.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105915.3%9 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes14c665.62$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.21,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes60c662.83$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.2834039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6282…c9f0backed Yes68c654.99$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.792171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed Yes66c619.67$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.281361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked No5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307818.7%68 W · 713 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6a…7cafbacked No3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed No29c600$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17511831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.