Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a26232df48ae87f853f4ae784a69040e7008816e41dac0944ebfd4c81601df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,389 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 593 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 38c | 22,585$8,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,050.98 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 79c | 19,466$15,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,077.89 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 49c | 9,290$4,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,730.23 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 66c | 7,176$4,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.21 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 19c | 6,691$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.06 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 63c | 6,181$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.17 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 80c | 5,741$4,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.09 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 47c | 5,476$2,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,887.34 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes | 67c | 5,440$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 35c | 5,319$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,461.04 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 32c | 5,265$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.42 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed No | 62c | 4,970$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.51 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 74c | 4,724$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.32 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 52c | 4,062$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.3 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 68c | 4,040$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.58 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…342bbacked Yes | 69c | 4,015$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 37c | 4,012$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.5 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 47c | 3,730$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.73 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 32c | 3,649$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.14 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 56c | 3,146$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.06 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 51c | 2,900$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.82 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b2…7cdabacked Yes | 67c | 2,876$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 77c | 2,871$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.58 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 52c | 2,658$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.77 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 54c | 2,621$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.74 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 2,427$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.53 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 45c | 2,226$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.87 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 2,180$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.72 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed No | 23c | 2,144$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.67 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,068$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.16 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.66 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 11c | 1,993$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.35 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 39c | 1,933$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.17 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 41c | 1,873$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.61 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 34c | 1,872$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.46 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed Yes | 75c | 1,793$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.2 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 22c | 1,787$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.01 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 25c | 1,774$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.4 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 59c | 1,768$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.6 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 64c | 1,708$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.88 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed No | 31c | 1,694$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.58 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,657$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.54 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f34…9b08backed Yes | 71c | 1,649$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 66c | 1,646$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.34 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…748fbacked Yes | 80c | 1,623$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.36 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd510…d56dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,620$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 70c | 1,594$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 67c | 1,392$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.64 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 60c | 1,368$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.2 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 34c | 1,344$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 38c | 1,310$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.05 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 56c | 1,274$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.4 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 46c | 1,260$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,231$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.9 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 73c | 1,210$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.13 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 60c | 1,175$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.24 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 67c | 1,100$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.85 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 76c | 1,100$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 4c | 1,090$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 16c | 999.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked No | 36c | 999.55$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.84 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 40c | 975.03$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.69 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 60c | 925.96$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.38 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 66c | 911.98$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.98 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed No | 52c | 905.15$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.85 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 69c | 896.99$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 36c | 886.33$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.14 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 860.14$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.87 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 33c | 856.1$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 54c | 851.75$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.84 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 58c | 840.89$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 835.91$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.42 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes | 66c | 831.35$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.65 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 65c | 830$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…b128backed Yes | 53c | 811.3$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.64 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 26c | 807.6$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 65c | 798.62$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.14 | 139 | 26.6%37 W · 102 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…1555backed Yes | 77c | 779.04$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 13c | 769.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.06 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 48c | 760.56$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.04 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…1212backed Yes | 67c | 740.73$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 55c | 737.77$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.08 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…780cbacked Yes | 27c | 733.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.85 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x181e…ace0backed Yes | 21c | 719.65$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 59c | 719.34$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…1236backed No | 72c | 715.96$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 56c | 702.6$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.11 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed No | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 199 | 25.1%50 W · 149 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Yes | 62c | 699.98$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…2bc6backed Yes | 69c | 691.57$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…501cbacked Yes | 78c | 690.4$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…8449backed Yes | 60c | 670.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 2c | 666.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 14c | 665.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.2 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 60c | 662.83$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.28 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…c9f0backed Yes | 68c | 654.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.79 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…30d5backed Yes | 66c | 619.67$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 781 | 8.7%68 W · 713 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…7cafbacked No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 29c | 600$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.