Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e381b813d6e662f8267800f7f5217b1ce94ee8f148b1e6f992bc77407b0c8da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,475 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 19,663$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 17,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,039$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 9,297$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.96 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 17c | 7,400$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 6c | 6,565$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.91 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c53…eaa6backed Yes | 0c | 5,030$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,967$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 10c | 3,013$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,427$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 0c | 2,074$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.24 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…68f8backed Yes | 21c | 1,943$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 1,901$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,605$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 1c | 1,391$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 1,242$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,211$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,100$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 18c | 1,046$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.95 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 2c | 999.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 18c | 900.31$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 816.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 8c | 785.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 704.42$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 20c | 641.84$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 596.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…5377backed Yes | 20c | 510.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…4097backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 17c | 499.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0151…3691backed Yes | 16c | 470.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 16c | 468.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 10c | 449.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 11c | 437.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 13c | 401.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…2f54backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d6…2136backed Yes | 19c | 360.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 10c | 357.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 4c | 304.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 13c | 297.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 286.16$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 13c | 249.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…88b1backed Yes | 15c | 232.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…1001backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 19c | 199.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 20c | 184.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6b…0420backed Yes | 21c | 151.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 101 | 29.7%30 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…8da3backed Yes | 9c | 143.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 13c | 142.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…9fc8backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes | 21c | 126.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 87 | 12.6%11 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…f5a9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…33c6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…394dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…a65abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…9278backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c9…e4a0backed Yes | 14c | 99.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…640ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a7…0b46backed Yes | 17c | 91.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No | 80c | 77.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…16aabacked Yes | 16c | 71.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…6242backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…f507backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…9ad6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…dd24backed Yes | 19c | 60.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…ce41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.