Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61ae5890710977148fddf898861ea8d61b8c85d3795993c534d3cdc8075039ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $376,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,402 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 78,177$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.65 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 29,617$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.66 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 25,922$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.93 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 2c | 24,369$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 1c | 19,964$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 14,547$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 4c | 9,885$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.62 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 7,976$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,490$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 1c | 5,290$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 1c | 5,141$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 2c | 4,821$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,485$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 2c | 3,742$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 1c | 3,533$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,449$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 2c | 3,442$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed Yes | 2c | 3,306$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…10c9backed Yes | 2c | 3,104$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,972$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…250dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,738$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,728$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,700$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,679$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,513$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…c724backed Yes | 4c | 2,472$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47b…9843backed Yes | 1c | 2,411$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 2,404$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,068$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,067$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,048$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,029$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181e…ace0backed Yes | 3c | 1,957$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes | 3c | 1,950$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,892$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,767$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 1,760$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…4aacbacked Yes | 1c | 1,653$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 2c | 1,602$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…a567backed Yes | 2c | 1,569$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,458$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,385$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…d045backed Yes | 1c | 1,273$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,226$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…32e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 132 | 29.5%39 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,167$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Yes | 2c | 1,166$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,147$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 1,101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…4be1backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…8191backed Yes | 2c | 980.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 971.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes | 3c | 966.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 2c | 948.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 2c | 932.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…9d73backed Yes | 2c | 854.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 4c | 844.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…780cbacked Yes | 4c | 766.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 4c | 711.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes | 1c | 704.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 3c | 665.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…48cdbacked Yes | 2c | 655.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 2c | 648.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 643.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 118 | 5.9%7 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…59a6backed Yes | 2c | 596.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 2c | 580.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 2c | 540.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 538.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3604…72f8backed Yes | 2c | 513.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 3c | 474.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…7782backed Yes | 2c | 458.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes | 3c | 375.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…3412backed Yes | 3c | 370.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae08…8535backed Yes | 4c | 357.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 340$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 6c | 333.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 292.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 5c | 286.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 286.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d0…d74bbacked Yes | 5c | 277.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…366ebacked Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.