TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$356,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,428 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c15,987$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa459…7dd6backed Yes0c9,259$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.04238.7%2 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick2cpaid-48.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c7,960$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.262,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes4c7,140$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.581,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes0c7,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes1c6,468$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.756097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes0c4,775$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512825.8%33 W · 95 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+50.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0f…e13abacked Yes6c3,912$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ed…c600backed Yes6c3,785$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e92…7558backed Yes7c3,368$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+474.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06fa…d8ddbacked Yes6c3,196$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb838…1f76backed Yes6c3,192$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dac…6cf5backed Yes6c3,075$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x867c…4c4fbacked Yes6c3,062$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6149…5c3dbacked Yes6c2,462$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd083…ea42backed Yes3c2,360$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03f…ba60backed Yes5c2,322$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14cc…aaf2backed Yes6c2,322$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…202cbacked Yes5c2,310$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaad…dca0backed Yes5c2,058$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c80…a181backed Yes6c2,008$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12022610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ce…b5adbacked Yes6c1,953$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x253b…9262backed Yes6c1,950$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4336…62d5backed Yes3c1,836$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bae…3630backed Yes5c1,706$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa80f…f6e3backed Yes3c1,673$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4f…f394backed Yes7c1,646$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes2c1,644$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes4c1,559$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.797011.4%8 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d54…e1e8backed Yes6c1,558$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a4…8c7bbacked Yes7c1,552$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.43425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a3…4861backed Yes6c1,548$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad9…e969backed Yes7c1,536$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.38520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes3c1,535$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8005…756dbacked Yes6c1,530$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…8e04backed Yes7c1,527$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,519$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.591,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes1c1,505$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.281,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3075…1100backed Yes6c1,502$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes3c1,495$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2a…cc99backed Yes7c1,490$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb7…6debbacked Yes6c1,442$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…f7f1backed Yes6c1,412$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…6694backed Yes7c1,376$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64de…6f76backed Yes7c1,338$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c1,294$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.717304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f7…5903backed Yes7c1,294$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+283.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…69bbbacked Yes6c1,279$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc950…b7c4backed Yes6c1,183$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes1c1,174$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.511288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x808f…6efbbacked Yes6c1,145$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+474.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes2c1,133$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5826211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d3…aad1backed Yes6c1,133$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f9f…90aebacked Yes3c1,102$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef6…7d9fbacked Yes6c1,100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc6…0cc9backed Yes6c1,052$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf454…6fdfbacked Yes7c1,042$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1009…6a7ebacked Yes6c1,000$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes2c999.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3534215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes7c999.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.995628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x738a…4288backed Yes7c982$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+445.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc3…d28cbacked Yes6c957$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f7…bafbbacked Yes1c952.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes6c950.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.171,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59d…a7bebacked Yes6c927$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes5c920.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.35121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8938…d959backed Yes6c917$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d51…0befbacked Yes7c899$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce6…71c9backed Yes7c872$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7304…96bbbacked Yes6c812$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9345…60fdbacked Yes6c778$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c5…fd7ebacked Yes7c750$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c77…c1dbbacked Yes7c727$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb4…4237backed Yes7c723$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x407a…6752backed Yes7c650$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes2c633.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1713511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes7c630.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3111512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked Yes3c628.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5f…1360backed Yes5c554$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…61f2backed Yes6c548$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe262…4097backed Yes7c499.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes4c499.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013513.3%18 W · 117 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes5c495.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ca…c80dbacked Yes6c441$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes7c440.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9811918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ed…b45fbacked Yes6c424$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1c…44b6backed Yes3c409.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c9…05d5backed Yes6c375$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes5c356.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5388017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes7c318.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.998712.6%11 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff2…e90fbacked Yes6c280$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f6…2976backed Yes7c272$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes8c259.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206116.4%10 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac7b…620fbacked Yes4c227.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes5c198.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3316124.2%39 W · 122 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…c578backed Yes7c175$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…ce41backed Yes8c128.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.