Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacad1da5cb38b5d1bb67c9d1342dbd7ce5aa0edffc82570155f93997f22ef6e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $393,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,466 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 50,054$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.34 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 2c | 25,680$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.41 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…4097backed Yes | 2c | 23,194$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 20,035$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 0c | 19,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 19,315$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.31 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 1c | 18,400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 18,312$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 11,867$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.09 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 1c | 10,896$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,986$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 7c | 5,391$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.26 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,939$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 19c | 4,908$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.96 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 21c | 4,800$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.98 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 1c | 4,600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed Yes | 4c | 4,281$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.42 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 4,276$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.55 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 4c | 4,123$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 3c | 4,075$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 3c | 3,845$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 4c | 3,125$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…d2aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,981$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 1c | 2,621$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…1efebacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,427$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 2,414$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.17 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,273$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 28c | 2,105$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.97 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,948$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 3c | 1,931$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 8c | 1,891$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…0494backed Yes | 1c | 1,688$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,578$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 16c | 1,570$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,503$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.34 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 8c | 1,432$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,341$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 1,301$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed Yes | 20c | 1,273$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.36 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 6c | 1,176$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 1,119$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 13c | 1,082$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.8 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 7c | 1,059$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8e19backed Yes | 1c | 1,003$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 25c | 999.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 11c | 932.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 908.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 10c | 874.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 22c | 872.2$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 2c | 852$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 789.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 785.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 16c | 754.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 22c | 704.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 3c | 692.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 30c | 605.05$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 78c | 599.92$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 3c | 597.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 591.75$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…8f69backed Yes | 9c | 572.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 3c | 570.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…f503backed Yes | 2c | 562$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 22c | 553.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 537.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 7c | 527.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 12c | 516.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 15c | 500.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…b7d3backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 28c | 499.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0cdebacked Yes | 31c | 481.41$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 31c | 458.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 5c | 424.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 20c | 411.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 32c | 399.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 4c | 395.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…9233backed Yes | 34c | 394.64$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…24f3backed Yes | 3c | 387.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 6c | 380$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 359.92$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…5377backed Yes | 28c | 356.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.