Commodities · resolved market
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4fc7079b9890f5b80269a7bd8bee6cfd3a5200276650fcdb16a02d46cf7f41b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 14c | 1,046$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 56c | 906.78$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.27 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 641.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 4c | 617.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 20c | 409.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.55 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 18c | 311.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.77 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 74c | 307.71$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +422.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 6c | 181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 76c | 109.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 25c | 95.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 93.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 80c | 88.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 86.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…a9efbacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 78c | 79.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 76c | 75.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 50c | 64.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 24c | 54.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…1a1dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 26c | 44.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 63c | 38.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?this page
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.