Commodities · resolved market
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1121a02fc780ddeb79cf91cdf2fea0a7dc2a8eb91a8643e86a4a415ab519ab90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1086…27d2backed Yes | 58c | 4,300$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 32cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 3,227$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.09 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 41c | 3,224$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 19c | 3,106$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.59 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 53c | 2,904$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…4991backed No | 45c | 2,522$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 16c | 2,388$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 77c | 2,210$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.14 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 64c | 2,179$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.43 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 50c | 2,161$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.16 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 51c | 1,978$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 35c | 1,954$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.49 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,800$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.09 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 45c | 1,600$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.29 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 62c | 1,470$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 42c | 1,225$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.42 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 1,200$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.87 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…6e8bbacked Yes | 59c | 1,075$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada0…8e34backed Yes | 51c | 1,061$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…0f0ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,019$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 44c | 992$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…5feebacked Yes | 43c | 985.7$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 923.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47a…2f05backed Yes | 51c | 872.77$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked Yes | 58c | 868.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 48c | 779.17$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.79 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 703$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.1 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 700.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 49c | 699.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.7 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 30c | 670$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 58c | 612.51$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 54c | 604.84$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.84 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 22c | 536.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…2bfcbacked Yes | 56c | 517.94$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 13c | 450$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed No | 43c | 445.81$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 47c | 418$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 408.25$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 48c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…1148backed Yes | 61c | 393.13$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 38c | 376.38$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 55c | 358$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 64c | 343.8$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 327.91$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.31 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 52c | 315.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.79 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 62c | 309.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 70c | 295.46$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 43c | 289.55$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…bb70backed Yes | 58c | 285.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 53c | 280.36$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 47c | 272$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 51c | 268.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 55c | 254.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed No | 45c | 254.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 55c | 244.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 202.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 195.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 46c | 195$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed Yes | 53c | 176.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 59c | 157.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 70c | 154.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…4fa7backed Yes | 47c | 154.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 150.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…e276backed No | 42c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 143.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…8bc4backed Yes | 56c | 142.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 58c | 141.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed No | 59c | 136.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 79c | 126.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 121.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…1862backed Yes | 48c | 120.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked No | 51c | 120.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 57c | 117$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 44c | 110$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…2f6dbacked Yes | 54c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 52c | 103.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 44c | 101.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 100.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +383.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…f8bfbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…23b2backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…8253backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 54c | 94.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 64c | 90.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked Yes | 50c | 82.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 39c | 79.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 52c | 78.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 66c | 76.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 54c | 73.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?this page
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.