Commodities · resolved market
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f55fb4898ca3fae3f87c99eb5530baed89334cc413e650766526cb7c494c04c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 17c | 7,300$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.95 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…2bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 5,759$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…bb70backed Yes | 34c | 5,708$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 34c | 4,591$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 71c | 3,718$2,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47a…2f05backed Yes | 33c | 3,535$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada0…8e34backed Yes | 34c | 3,504$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…be21backed Yes | 30c | 1,707$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 67c | 1,298$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.66 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 65c | 1,242$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +196.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 24c | 1,202$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…4e2dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,088$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,031$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 12c | 1,030$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…531bbacked Yes | 14c | 929.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…64b1backed Yes | 6c | 918$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e23…05cabacked Yes | 5c | 907.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…d468backed Yes | 5c | 905$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…04b2backed Yes | 5c | 905$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b93…0bd8backed Yes | 5c | 903$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b09…3d56backed Yes | 5c | 903$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…9109backed Yes | 5c | 900$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…fdd4backed Yes | 5c | 900$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…9e18backed Yes | 5c | 900$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…95d2backed Yes | 5c | 899.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 30c | 888.01$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 71c | 843.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.61 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 65c | 818.66$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.7 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 799.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 73c | 769.98$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.09 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 77c | 745.87$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.87 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed No | 72c | 724.21$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.66 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 4c | 706.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 74c | 679.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 69c | 632.77$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…e2a3backed Yes | 34c | 629.01$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 35c | 565.5$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 24c | 484.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 12c | 475.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed No | 65c | 460.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 450.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 19c | 450$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 439.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 24c | 420.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed No | 41c | 419$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.21 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 37c | 401.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 77c | 395$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 386.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 74c | 385.59$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 79c | 381.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked Yes | 34c | 381.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 11c | 380.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 367.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 31c | 333.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 31c | 329.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…aafabacked Yes | 25c | 326.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…f650backed Yes | 28c | 307.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 16c | 302.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed Yes | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 19c | 283.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 278.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 274.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 37c | 270.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…9f86backed No | 69c | 265$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 79c | 250$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 30c | 244.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…a9efbacked No | 67c | 224.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…7e38backed No | 70c | 215.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…084abacked Yes | 24c | 213.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 66c | 213$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 71c | 212.55$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 179.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 72c | 174.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 169.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 33c | 157.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 21c | 154.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 154.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 18c | 153.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 68c | 151.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 79c | 149.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 32c | 149.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 24c | 144.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…11e0backed No | 70c | 143.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 15c | 142.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 37c | 136.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 32c | 120.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed Yes | 40c | 117.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 114.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed No | 66c | 113.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…4e57backed Yes | 18c | 111.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 13c | 107.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked No | 76c | 104.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.