Commodities · resolved market
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6789a2ac662dd271d11f0d4e65fb0f323b680619de5ffd57815342aa3a6cecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 9,115$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,843$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,031$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,690$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd184…078bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,309$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 995.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…7b18backed Yes | 5c | 969.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…1fb3backed Yes | 5c | 966$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…2f9ebacked Yes | 5c | 962$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…178bbacked Yes | 5c | 960$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…86d1backed Yes | 5c | 954.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…7e5bbacked Yes | 5c | 953.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dc…aafdbacked Yes | 5c | 950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae21…1b97backed Yes | 5c | 950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7411…5a6dbacked Yes | 5c | 945$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa4…4598backed Yes | 5c | 936$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceff…50e4backed Yes | 5c | 905$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…3deabacked Yes | 5c | 905$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…c268backed Yes | 5c | 900$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…c266backed Yes | 5c | 900$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…8bf8backed Yes | 4c | 895$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…5724backed Yes | 5c | 894.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a7f7backed Yes | 4c | 891$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5366…0cafbacked Yes | 4c | 890$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc523…3695backed Yes | 6c | 890$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…6ab0backed Yes | 6c | 890$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc0…c6e8backed Yes | 4c | 890$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…f509backed Yes | 6c | 890$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89a…3aa8backed Yes | 4c | 887$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…42f4backed Yes | 4c | 887$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…ff21backed Yes | 5c | 885$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521d…d915backed Yes | 6c | 885$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…472ebacked Yes | 4c | 883$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…b557backed Yes | 4c | 883$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…f978backed Yes | 5c | 881.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…a88abacked Yes | 6c | 880$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…9eb3backed Yes | 6c | 880$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…de39backed Yes | 6c | 880$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ba…dc55backed Yes | 6c | 880$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e77…7bd2backed Yes | 5c | 875$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5e…26c0backed Yes | 9c | 873$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…0740backed Yes | 5c | 870$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e3…bae4backed Yes | 5c | 870$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0e…8f54backed Yes | 5c | 870$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…61e3backed Yes | 5c | 870$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6a…1435backed Yes | 5c | 869.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cfa6backed Yes | 4c | 860$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…77a9backed Yes | 4c | 860$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 822.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…bd46backed Yes | 10c | 764$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70eb…3a7fbacked Yes | 7c | 752$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1cd3backed Yes | 7c | 752$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…71b6backed Yes | 7c | 742$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…89b3backed Yes | 7c | 699$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…8b13backed Yes | 7c | 699$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…012fbacked Yes | 5c | 682$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…7e0dbacked Yes | 5c | 676$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…6849backed Yes | 5c | 676$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 2c | 670.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 5c | 614.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 566.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…1b25backed Yes | 5c | 489$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…227bbacked Yes | 5c | 489$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…13b4backed Yes | 8c | 474$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…1d17backed Yes | 8c | 474$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0d…8475backed Yes | 5c | 469$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…8b86backed Yes | 5c | 468.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…50c4backed Yes | 4c | 465$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…f0dabacked Yes | 4c | 465$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x704b…d95dbacked Yes | 4c | 462$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 462$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…7ff4backed Yes | 5c | 448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…5569backed Yes | 5c | 448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…c555backed Yes | 5c | 447$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…77f3backed Yes | 5c | 447$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…757bbacked Yes | 8c | 440$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…d6efbacked Yes | 8c | 440$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…82f6backed Yes | 4c | 436$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…c185backed Yes | 4c | 436$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…8817backed Yes | 4c | 433$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9944…54bebacked Yes | 4c | 433$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11b…93b4backed Yes | 4c | 425$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac6…29e9backed Yes | 4c | 425$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…0fc2backed Yes | 5c | 404.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f18…ed79backed Yes | 5c | 404.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…26b7backed Yes | 8c | 387$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b1…baedbacked Yes | 8c | 387$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…7a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 366$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e44…fa5ebacked Yes | 8c | 366$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ef1abacked Yes | 8c | 355$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…d2f7backed Yes | 8c | 355$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 277.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 5c | 261.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 235$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 5c | 205.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 7c | 145.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 11c | 122$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.