Commodities · resolved market
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06224e7bfc666eab384c84856e642063131d6b012745ce7e188f9c78336f5e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,289$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5580backed Yes | 3c | 2,071$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…8bfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,715$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…a955backed Yes | 4c | 1,715$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…8ef7backed Yes | 7c | 1,034$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…097dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,034$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…9a0ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,012$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6514…49fbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,012$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…0443backed Yes | 4c | 970$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4668…80c6backed Yes | 3c | 968$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2469…51c9backed Yes | 7c | 957.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…1713backed Yes | 7c | 957.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…dbb8backed Yes | 4c | 957$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc48c…388dbacked Yes | 4c | 953$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…3526backed Yes | 4c | 951.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…67b5backed Yes | 4c | 949.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…74b3backed Yes | 4c | 949.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…4de0backed Yes | 4c | 945$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…1956backed Yes | 3c | 945$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…c341backed Yes | 7c | 945$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…14c9backed Yes | 4c | 945$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…4430backed Yes | 7c | 945$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…608fbacked Yes | 3c | 944$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…9863backed Yes | 4c | 941$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472d…2cc2backed Yes | 3c | 932$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…2714backed Yes | 7c | 926.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…0f43backed Yes | 7c | 926.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96f…0276backed Yes | 4c | 924$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 2c | 860.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +123%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…b34dbacked Yes | 4c | 860$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…b558backed Yes | 4c | 860$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b1…2bc2backed Yes | 3c | 850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…2498backed Yes | 3c | 850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe26…88cabacked Yes | 3c | 850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…8e15backed Yes | 3c | 850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…c825backed Yes | 3c | 845$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…3928backed Yes | 3c | 845$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…ea66backed Yes | 5c | 840$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…51b7backed Yes | 4c | 824$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…bab6backed Yes | 3c | 815$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…a58dbacked Yes | 3c | 810$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…e786backed Yes | 4c | 476.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…a566backed Yes | 3c | 360$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 9c | 145.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.