Commodities · resolved market
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60738799b14966cb7c12e67a550a21404dc473547d99e91993523f70043f64e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 5c | 4,717$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,491$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,617$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,527$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 3c | 1,219$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…30d2backed Yes | 7c | 1,090$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 12c | 1,034$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…6b67backed Yes | 7c | 1,022$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1238…c94abacked Yes | 7c | 981$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…ff55backed Yes | 7c | 965$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…d8e7backed Yes | 4c | 905$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…a157backed Yes | 4c | 900$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ac…a6debacked Yes | 6c | 900$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…680bbacked Yes | 6c | 900$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…4249backed Yes | 4c | 895$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…969bbacked Yes | 7c | 890$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af7…54c3backed Yes | 7c | 890$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…2679backed Yes | 6c | 880$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…bab6backed Yes | 4c | 880$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac8…ed4dbacked Yes | 6c | 880$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…6418backed Yes | 4c | 879.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6812…3ba2backed Yes | 4c | 874.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…ff14backed Yes | 4c | 871$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…e177backed Yes | 4c | 871$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…b929backed Yes | 4c | 870$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85a…23a4backed Yes | 4c | 870$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…e0b2backed Yes | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb88…92e2backed Yes | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…05e1backed Yes | 6c | 850$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…0aecbacked Yes | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb40…46fbbacked Yes | 6c | 850$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…f681backed Yes | 4c | 845.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…dad8backed Yes | 4c | 845.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8831…4a89backed Yes | 7c | 845$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…25c7backed Yes | 4c | 830$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…6799backed Yes | 4c | 830$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…0a3cbacked Yes | 4c | 740$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…37aebacked Yes | 4c | 740$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ab…3f89backed Yes | 4c | 718$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…0c2abacked Yes | 4c | 718$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…1b1abacked Yes | 7c | 690$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc78…3c88backed Yes | 7c | 690$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…aba2backed Yes | 7c | 690$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…26e8backed Yes | 6c | 690$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…74d1backed Yes | 7c | 690$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 681.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 2c | 627.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…294dbacked Yes | 6c | 430$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e08…eebcbacked Yes | 6c | 430$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…5597backed Yes | 7c | 408$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…4349backed Yes | 7c | 408$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…4ac1backed Yes | 7c | 405$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…3455backed Yes | 7c | 405$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…6804backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…4e2dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 11c | 377.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…29d9backed Yes | 7c | 370$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8357backed Yes | 7c | 370$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…b8d9backed Yes | 7c | 362$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…df23backed Yes | 7c | 361.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed Yes | 4c | 343.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 5c | 301.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 285.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 5c | 285$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 259.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 150.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 9c | 149$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…30d3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.