Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x926fb6d98fb69fe9eecd9be4663b2242c46b73f31a8f5bdb3ee7eb92093203ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x460d…8ddbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,785$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,980$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 36c | 1,110$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.89 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…8df5backed Yes | 28c | 1,107$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 56c | 999.96$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.98 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…aad6backed No | 76c | 620.36$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 77c | 500$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 44c | 480.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.86 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 18c | 351.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.61 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…8536backed No | 68c | 299.29$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 66c | 257.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 39c | 242.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 9c | 221.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…b2ccbacked No | 70c | 214.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc7…f5f4backed No | 49c | 196.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…8c32backed No | 54c | 192.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541d…8f88backed No | 68c | 178.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 49c | 172.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 16c | 169.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…77b8backed Yes | 49c | 164.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 59c | 156.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 59c | 138.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 17c | 135.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb721…2f08backed Yes | 22c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 31c | 110.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…6d01backed No | 57c | 105.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d19…923fbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 41c | 94.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 66c | 94.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 93.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…0ecbbacked Yes | 37c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 62c | 89.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…2c7fbacked Yes | 29c | 80.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2aa…81dabacked Yes | 55c | 78.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…de01backed No | 78c | 74.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 38c | 74.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf81d…7706backed No | 68c | 74.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…f344backed No | 79c | 70.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…3528backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 20c | 64.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 59.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 55c | 51.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…2ec7backed No | 70c | 41.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 26c | 40.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…61d4backed No | 49c | 39.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…a5ebbacked Yes | 38c | 37.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…c229backed No | 62c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c5…3444backed Yes | 55c | 36.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…6ac9backed No | 40c | 35.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…bcbcbacked No | 77c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…043abacked No | 75c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…f13abacked No | 77c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0516backed No | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…69a9backed No | 46c | 21.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…4c66backed No | 49c | 21.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…bf3cbacked Yes | 58c | 19.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 71c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in April?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.