Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0517c128c724bb2d5c14a930b8347e4efa08c6152d030855928f50070d0e7eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc480…76b0backed Yes | 12c | 1,376$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 19c | 1,072$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.97 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 31c | 787.49$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 57c | 350.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac3…99ffbacked Yes | 42c | 228.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 8c | 218.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 63c | 173.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…8df5backed Yes | 16c | 145.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 43c | 121$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 119.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 74c | 97.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…f21bbacked Yes | 20c | 93.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1254…c808backed No | 70c | 88.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…e41dbacked No | 80c | 61.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed No | 80c | 40.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…613bbacked No | 80c | 39.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 64c | 30.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…4c66backed No | 45c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in April?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.