Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef58197f4f435a1505932355c4ca0e60303ef1ef81fd11d61199e7be53514dc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 1c | 11,861$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 70c | 1,063$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.76 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 37c | 978.37$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.31 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 30c | 735.88$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.24 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…3e20backed No | 69c | 487.64$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…6f30backed Yes | 25c | 402.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…4d64backed Yes | 30c | 327.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked Yes | 34c | 304.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 66c | 296.06$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…0e64backed Yes | 67c | 291.53$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked No | 45c | 261.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…df54backed Yes | 42c | 244.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed No | 58c | 227.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed No | 15c | 174.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 9c | 171.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 58c | 163.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…00c8backed Yes | 9c | 147.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…086cbacked No | 70c | 140.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked No | 32c | 139.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 71c | 137.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81d…7706backed No | 72c | 134.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Yes | 51c | 125.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 11c | 122$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…f13dbacked Yes | 16c | 117.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 51c | 114.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked No | 53c | 106.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…c11abacked No | 23c | 100.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…1288backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…3dc1backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d7…2b00backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 76c | 98.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 18c | 68.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 60.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8e16backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598a…ef6ebacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…3296backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…49ebbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…36bdbacked No | 32c | 59.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 35c | 54.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…61d4backed No | 40c | 52.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…d2efbacked Yes | 68c | 40.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…73e1backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…2712backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…b139backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 41c | 31.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…ace6backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 44c | 28.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 48c | 24.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed No | 79c | 23.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 75c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…00e3backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in April?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.