Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d75e784903e0910d17894a1ea5c5cae45af4c18d7f1efdaebb100f42e03e7b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked No | 54c | 997.15$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 26c | 900.13$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 840.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 40c | 359.15$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…8c32backed Yes | 61c | 310.14$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…00c8backed Yes | 19c | 221.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 71c | 200.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23a1…cbf6backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 35c | 197.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…a452backed Yes | 38c | 192.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…5435backed Yes | 45c | 181.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Yes | 38c | 133.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 62c | 125.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…26ddbacked Yes | 35c | 75.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed No | 76c | 69.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 25c | 68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 40c | 62.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 38c | 59.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 53.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1929…346bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…c28fbacked No | 58c | 49.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…bdcdbacked Yes | 36c | 45.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…a62dbacked No | 56c | 43.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…4c66backed No | 69c | 41.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked Yes | 75c | 40.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…5ea4backed Yes | 50c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19b…b3f8backed No | 66c | 36.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked No | 60c | 36.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 43c | 34.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…3370backed Yes | 62c | 31.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…e41dbacked No | 75c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe71…31fbbacked Yes | 75c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…189ebacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in April?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.