TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$447,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa446…754ebacked Yes2c30,733$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.13225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes17c25,983$4,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,501.663122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c23,149$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.61310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes17c9,108$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.81520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c8,215$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.19590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9e…ba88backed Yes16c7,568$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c5,106$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.832324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No64c4,741$3,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.513737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28d3…af87backed Yes1c4,699$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes40c4,530$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.4630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed Yes12c4,508$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.96205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-75%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94d…c69abacked Yes20c4,320$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.68714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes4c4,128$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7532023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x343b…fda0backed Yes5c3,985$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.231225%3 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes62c3,802$2,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.024233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes7c3,558$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.855315.1%8 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes3c3,454$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.14580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe51…12d0backed Yes7c3,200$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c2,800$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes11c2,799$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.03185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x264f…c4b7backed Yes2c2,504$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No41c2,397$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.793873.7%28 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4578…7614backed Yes13c2,372$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c1…35eabacked Yes2c2,355$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No54c2,315$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.647150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8929…816ebacked Yes34c2,165$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.292825%7 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6e4…3a99backed Yes1c2,131$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb5…426bbacked No36c2,049$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c1,884$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1721015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6602…7047backed Yes11c1,824$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes4c1,805$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.225617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd02c…769fbacked Yes11c1,774$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+232.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked No31c1,763$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.662965.5%19 W · 10 L+9.3wins+0.32per pick33cpaid+90.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes22c1,740$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.24425%11 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87be…5f2bbacked Yes16c1,692$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b3a6backed Yes12c1,623$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8144…564cbacked Yes6c1,600$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.331118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked No51c1,509$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.421291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick60cpaid+50.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x18a6…be74backed Yes20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd4b…67f5backed Yes16c1,406$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…b3c9backed No72c1,340$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick60cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No77c1,292$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.782075%15 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes70c1,263$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.653735.1%13 W · 24 L-7.6wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-39.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa684…016bbacked Yes4c1,186$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb84…5685backed Yes45c1,149$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5132015%3 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No55c1,067$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.884158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No78c1,062$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.162227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0053…bf1dbacked Yes23c1,050$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+246.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…cabebacked Yes11c1,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8508…9fdabacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96a…683ebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ad…77cdbacked Yes6c997$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8163…c1aebacked Yes33c904.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c900$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2116516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb7c…9327backed Yes11c890.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9deb…8108backed Yes23c877.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No17c850$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.62744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c835.37$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9413858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c817.59$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.8430839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f8…32b5backed Yes1c809.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb34…a1cdbacked No78c800.01$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.491656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes18c773.84$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.291711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e60…a2ddbacked Yes26c766.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes2c750.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224c…ee07backed Yes12c730.73$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes62c715.2$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.423164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb4…446abacked Yes7c690.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b57…37aabacked Yes44c678.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6f…64b6backed No35c665.07$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+124.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b92…6088backed No64c652.08$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.08580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cd7…7061backed No18c645$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+253.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed Yes11c642.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6506…a203backed Yes2c609.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked No74c608.11$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.111315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5f…5e78backed Yes18c600$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a32…6186backed Yes12c592.72$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f8…15dabacked Yes19c577.07$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d2d…23fcbacked Yes7c548$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fd…bb05backed Yes9c546.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No40c532.73$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.983969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes19c530$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.71428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+82.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1b…a122backed No76c526.04$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c525.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2226413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes26c524.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.533312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c523.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.071118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-73.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…db7cbacked Yes11c520$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dbf…3faebacked Yes21c500$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.361338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5e…4b26backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9c…c887backed Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed No72c499.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0db…b117backed No75c490$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No31c482.83$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.144235.7%15 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick22cpaid-6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f40…da32backed No77c476.11$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.584100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec1c…4b95backed No35c464.26$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes57c460.23$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcef…b65dbacked Yes4c459.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No72c455$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1271593.3%14 W · 1 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick55cpaid+120.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No35c430$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.515556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes5c411.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.