TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$331,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$355,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcac5…590ebacked No64c16,297$10,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,793.87875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed Yes2c12,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-75%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x343b…fda0backed Yes21c9,910$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.361225%3 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes36c8,666$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.0730238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c8,428$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.56590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c6,150$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c3…9f0fbacked Yes15c6,080$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9281216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No69c5,950$4,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,845.57977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c4,845$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.182324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes5c4,136$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78a…2f5cbacked Yes44c3,966$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+113.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No70c3,871$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.43737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c3,834$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6893840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4566…f265backed Yes12c3,682$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4493414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-44.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No62c3,667$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.434158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb84…5685backed Yes12c3,598$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4462015%3 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes45c3,524$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.84233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe94d…c69abacked Yes34c3,271$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No62c3,224$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.53969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No59c3,013$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.784856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1102552%13 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes15c2,983$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.185315.1%8 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes12c2,423$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f6e…501fbacked Yes18c2,248$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…816ebacked Yes21c1,995$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.812825%7 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e2c…bd51backed No46c1,941$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.154360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No60c1,896$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.443164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2573…0c73backed Yes43c1,858$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+236%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No60c1,700$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6821593.3%14 W · 1 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick55cpaid+120.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c1,614$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3735334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f71…9c46backed Yes31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c1,601$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.262934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes18c1,440$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.565915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked No61c1,319$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.871291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick60cpaid+50.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c1,249$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0321015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c1…35eabacked Yes13c1,226$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0814…b977backed Yes10c1,201$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.524219%8 W · 34 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4578…7614backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes1c1,101$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes35c1,082$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.543748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0053…bf1dbacked Yes19c1,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+246.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27a3…285dbacked Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8144…564cbacked Yes5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f0…6ea2backed Yes49c898$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+165.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c842.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.97752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes5c781.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.373528.6%10 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes38c760$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.84425%11 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Yes16c700$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No63c677.82$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.937150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes51c637.3$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.654050%20 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa81…e411backed Yes11c630.85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked No54c623.59$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.392965.5%19 W · 10 L+9.3wins+0.32per pick33cpaid+90.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes17c604.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No64c594.4$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1815556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes10c590.87$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.09137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes19c576.38$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.984526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes2c518$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.477930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes48c505.88$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413735.1%13 W · 24 L-7.6wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-39.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc904…ca06backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2703873.7%28 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8a02…6d9ebacked No72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes5c493.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e2…9469backed Yes42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c473.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.329312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked Yes14c466.27$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c7…2b66backed Yes34c455.88$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb194…4172backed Yes16c415.65$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf1…7e8ebacked Yes48c413.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes37c404.92$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dbf…3faebacked Yes15c400$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c88…187bbacked Yes35c399.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes36c386.79$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.452524%6 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f40…da32backed No59c383.76$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c382.82$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3123846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c360.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.281,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a9…c455backed No60c349.31$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.231838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c344.96$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.37945.6%36 W · 43 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb24b…f263backed Yes8c340.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5e…4b26backed Yes8c335.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.45812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6f…64b6backed No43c321.66$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+124.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes5c305.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No71c295.68$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.634643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f42…ab62backed Yes15c285.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c273$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.071,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf930…ac87backed Yes39c266$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x428b…8f12backed Yes8c257.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.211010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c253.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2126413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes27c250$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.54626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed Yes36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa1f1…955abacked Yes42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No67c250$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.53764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33b8…411fbacked Yes20c249$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No37c248.18$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.354447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c26…c399backed Yes13c247.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.682213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-79%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed Yes12c241.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe81a…dc9fbacked Yes29c236.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.