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Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$296,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18a6…be74backed Yes4c10,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c8,900$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.71590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c8,650$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.28310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes1c8,404$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes9c5,922$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.945315.1%8 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x481a…a335backed Yes0c5,563$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes14c5,447$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.25137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcac5…590ebacked No77c5,271$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.17875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c5,042$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.6121015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c4,213$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.432934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,955$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.612324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes7c3,448$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.75296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0053…bf1dbacked Yes19c3,009$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.43633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+246.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0814…b977backed Yes8c2,828$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.214219%8 W · 34 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes2c2,551$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.477930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes31c2,471$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.364233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes1c2,329$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.591127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No61c2,253$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.163781.1%30 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No76c1,920$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.974158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66b…eef5backed Yes2c1,910$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes7c1,875$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.32580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c1…35eabacked Yes7c1,837$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12980%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes4c1,828$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick26cpaid+255.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes2c1,779$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.643528.6%10 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No67c1,714$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.76651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes1c1,708$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.053023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+261.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes25c1,672$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.6630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes5c1,640$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked No66c1,509$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.581291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick60cpaid+50.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf9f0…6ea2backed Yes38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+165.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94d…c69abacked Yes35c1,286$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18e2…9469backed Yes34c1,185$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400100%0 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No69c1,153$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.423873.7%28 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes9c1,096$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6235334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,093$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5116516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,071$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.121,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa4…81eabacked Yes5c1,020$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c3…9f0fbacked Yes34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes5c999.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4566…f265backed Yes5c999.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-44.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb194…4172backed Yes7c942.86$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes5c940$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4711615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc5a…e3e4backed No79c910.62$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No75c879.94$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.343969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x807e…5405backed Yes44c837.82$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd16a…22c5backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc904…ca06backed Yes8c812.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.031127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924050%20 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0be…944ebacked Yes3c793.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No64c725.9$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.11172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f54…e9e9backed Yes29c708.02$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.33185.6%1 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.29per pick35cpaid-90.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.02956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee4…ace2backed Yes25c700$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c654.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…816ebacked Yes26c614.04$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.922825%7 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes3c595$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.411330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x428b…8f12backed Yes13c580$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…3a99backed Yes4c569.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c566.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.029312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c531.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3526413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c514.63$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9230718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f5e…4b26backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654425%11 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f3…06c3backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e1…3b95backed No61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1952972.4%21 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+51.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes3c489.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.191216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9deb…8108backed Yes12c481.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed Yes25c481$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.51650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b8…fec9backed Yes4c471.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bed…8b5ebacked Yes22c454.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c453.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2224126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes33c453.25$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.494643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2415…a7c0backed Yes34c439.08$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4391…a3dfbacked Yes8c437.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156a…dd4bbacked Yes8c428.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.94100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a9…c455backed No72c417.15$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.631838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b8…f847backed No75c403.94$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.294100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+71.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No66c399.99$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361593.3%14 W · 1 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick55cpaid+120.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x53d5…d88cbacked Yes5c394.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x561c…730cbacked Yes7c387.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c382.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.271118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-73.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a32…6186backed Yes3c371.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8028…ee66backed Yes23c367.78$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8570%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc19f…2918backed Yes28c357.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd7…ecd9backed Yes6c350$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes4c333.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes23c332.31$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.813748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…2d73backed Yes6c331.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e7b…bcbcbacked No64c314.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.342045%9 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaae1…9e37backed Yes13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed No70c303$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8163…c1aebacked Yes47c300.59$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc998…cf69backed Yes5c300.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7768…495cbacked Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed No67c294.6$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.22540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4690backed No67c290$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.71735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.