Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f52cfe9a51329dbee2681090658e7debb5504364bf9650112165f5967618aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $263,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 63c | 18,269$11,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,826.86 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2766…5588backed Yes | 8c | 12,445$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +350.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3f…a25ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 33c | 6,948$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 16c | 5,333$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.41 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…5e44backed Yes | 2c | 5,156$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 28c | 5,153$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.1 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 11c | 4,693$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.66 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd648…2badbacked Yes | 2c | 4,105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,539$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.07 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 13c | 3,027$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.24 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 7c | 2,896$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 56c | 1,802$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.97 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 2c | 1,758$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 76c | 1,754$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.96 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…41d4backed Yes | 46c | 1,643$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,576$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 11c | 1,550$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5d…4727backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 2c | 1,416$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…30e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,284$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…9d91backed Yes | 3c | 1,120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…a1ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,032$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…e51bbacked Yes | 1c | 946.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…23c7backed Yes | 30c | 900$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 9c | 810$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…e941backed Yes | 2c | 801.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 12c | 796.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Yes | 34c | 730.2$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 666.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 79c | 634.2$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 35c | 572.28$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 564.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 547.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…91c4backed Yes | 2c | 511.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e4…29debacked Yes | 3c | 500.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 2c | 499.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…b9a8backed Yes | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 466.54$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…083ebacked Yes | 2c | 446.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 434.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…8864backed Yes | 10c | 417.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbef…2b3bbacked Yes | 47c | 410.8$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…8671backed Yes | 46c | 350$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b6…f416backed Yes | 3c | 321.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…9447backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6913backed No | 54c | 277.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 236.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…506bbacked Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 19c | 206.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…fff1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 19c | 142.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 36c | 131$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…820cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb8…6282backed No | 74c | 97.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 78c | 75.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…bcbcbacked Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aad…ff47backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…e9cfbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9f…b22ebacked No | 80c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.