Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3320b5cd9fab1f4d6c4674729604456ec9cb01b4d30cae68c6815ec4d5fb40fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $200,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a5d…4727backed Yes | 1c | 13,444$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 49c | 6,319$3,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,115.62 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…d7f8backed Yes | 2c | 6,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 1c | 5,723$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…8a25backed Yes | 1c | 5,680$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,577$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 5,509$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.58 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…3efcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,643$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 39c | 4,285$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.48 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…2d1dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 10c | 3,010$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…e51bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 8c | 2,838$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.82 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,741$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 2c | 2,390$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…452fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 40c | 1,765$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.08 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,659$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,654$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.71 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 964.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed Yes | 4c | 930.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 2c | 900.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 536.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 7c | 412.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +131%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…905bbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…6907backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 260.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…29d2backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.