Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbcfaa994a32559bd2a24968f0d3ede52fa8c7b10278c68b5193711291546330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2766…5588backed Yes | 14c | 20,248$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +350.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…2454backed Yes | 19c | 14,759$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…8b37backed Yes | 1c | 12,458$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 14c | 9,783$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.59 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,177$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 15c | 7,130$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.44 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…4e00backed Yes | 15c | 7,000$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 9c | 5,861$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.84 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 16c | 5,033$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.28 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 0c | 3,420$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee2…c6c1backed Yes | 4c | 2,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,806$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd648…2badbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,179$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,178$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…ae36backed Yes | 1c | 1,129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,092$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.24 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 15c | 871.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 821.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…ccc1backed Yes | 7c | 746.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 721.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 14c | 474.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 454.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 13c | 435.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 4c | 354$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 335.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…820cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…ece8backed Yes | 10c | 202.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…82f2backed Yes | 16c | 186.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked Yes | 13c | 139.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…941bbacked Yes | 16c | 123.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 14c | 102.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.