Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f3fb380b96600357c1c136ad9616836b896521f54d2f3fe69b3f9cb6c79c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 58c | 6,698$3,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,907.21 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 36c | 5,480$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,493.52 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 60c | 5,029$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 43c | 4,400$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.78 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…57bcbacked Yes | 39c | 3,617$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 61c | 3,589$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.47 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 37c | 1,050$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.48 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 65c | 1,029$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.37 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 64c | 900$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff7…1609backed Yes | 51c | 473.94$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 40c | 459.63$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.17 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…6907backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…d7eebacked No | 64c | 250.62$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 62c | 213.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6913backed No | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 180$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 159.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 56c | 119.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 42c | 117.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…0507backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…29d2backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3608…f911backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 12-18?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.