Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9b82b5b2b68af196e2e497c4f4e1999b1db2f4b55b8730037f6a7594a41a9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 6c | 13,780$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.54 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 49c | 5,439$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.21 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 52c | 3,167$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.38 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 51c | 1,427$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.62 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 1,370$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.57 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 71c | 1,357$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.69 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e98…d70ebacked No | 27c | 1,080$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…57bcbacked No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…23c7backed Yes | 71c | 900$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed No | 36c | 800$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 30c | 731.97$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 22c | 715.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.24 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…4240backed Yes | 14c | 557.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…d7eebacked No | 37c | 440.76$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 12c | 414.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…fa16backed Yes | 70c | 370$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f7…7a0dbacked No | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…19e9backed No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…5ae3backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 37c | 226.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed No | 31c | 193.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 165.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6913backed No | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…5e44backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 104.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7e97backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…ed02backed Yes | 71c | 56.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 30c | 43.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 69c | 22.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 12-18?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.