Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159f37ba8e30a15b5b053d4ecc8ada19383a5dc859a1555a8a7667e208ad8710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 78c | 8,140$6,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 26c | 7,663$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.32 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 10c | 4,364$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.22 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 73c | 3,197$2,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.72 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 22c | 2,513$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.93 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed Yes | 9c | 1,922$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,816$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,801$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.15 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…5736backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 755.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 619.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 568.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…cd7bbacked Yes | 4c | 565.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e7…aa79backed Yes | 29c | 459.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 453.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 251.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 136.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 17c | 119.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…09dabacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 79c | 45.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…c3e2backed Yes | 26c | 43.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…29d2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…5ec6backed No | 70c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.