TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,171,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,253,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,171,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 626 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes22c71,258$15,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,862.462321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes3c64,556$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.74130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes18c36,779$6,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,589.286123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3526…aababacked Yes15c32,872$4,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,810.325425.9%14 W · 40 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick11cpaid+83.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes17c30,000$5,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,115.6312025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes1c27,007$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.1250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a95…c43ebacked Yes13c26,157$3,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,281.87728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes25c20,483$5,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,215.22520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…3772backed Yes22c18,613$4,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,185.292412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes12c15,467$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.4310313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed55…d480backed Yes25c14,588$3,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,627.13966.7%6 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+338.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes18c13,574$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5073743.2%16 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+189.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes9c12,827$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.888713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes36c11,029$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,952.63611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed No76c10,759$8,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.9147721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c9,845$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.876785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes46c9,754$4,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,445.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick30cpaid+562.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc190…312ebacked Yes15c9,368$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.081040%4 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+139.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2c4…ed1fbacked Yes20c9,094$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc95d…c470backed Yes4c8,974$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.19922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c6b4backed Yes5c8,831$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.044413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e9…cb1ebacked Yes15c8,794$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59c6…f537backed Yes0c8,249$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.88714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c8,105$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.324163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae65…da6dbacked Yes7c7,976$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5763…1c22backed Yes17c7,825$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.721947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes13c7,233$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes12c6,979$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.411288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes44c6,881$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes14c6,750$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.445012%6 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7540…0d08backed Yes2c6,727$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes26c6,626$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.747018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c6,608$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c6,548$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.71490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes10c6,515$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.683998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes17c6,441$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes18c6,154$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.5114337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes6c5,648$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.081414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-71.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f9…1f57backed No79c5,599$4,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes2c5,442$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.051422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c88…8974backed Yes14c5,211$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes21c5,100$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.951631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca2…f5bebacked Yes21c5,053$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf1…8277backed Yes19c5,000$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.9870%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f2fbbacked Yes18c4,995$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6e…8931backed Yes7c4,942$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c4…a051backed Yes13c4,540$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.65306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Yes57c4,457$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c4,280$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.163724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f9a…fef7backed Yes12c4,094$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…4926backed Yes24c4,046$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes26c4,000$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0361241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5342…d131backed Yes26c4,000$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681e…d75cbacked No71c4,000$2,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1995…92e0backed Yes25c3,963$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes17c3,700$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.643647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes15c3,656$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.743010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Yes10c3,560$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.69540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e32…64a5backed Yes19c3,475$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0465…e95cbacked Yes2c3,451$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Yes13c3,406$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4391225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed No72c3,183$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.26128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick35cpaid-88.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No64c3,116$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.927163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d12…a3f6backed Yes23c3,103$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked No39c3,000$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8454050%20 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes5c3,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.921241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes14c2,913$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.4513117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d04…f6b8backed No41c2,900$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,797$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.781970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes15c2,718$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.683542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x745b…0b9abacked Yes2c2,717$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes21c2,617$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.234030%12 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes39c2,607$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.9813053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9455…2530backed Yes21c2,600$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.991233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed No50c2,577$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6081…def1backed Yes23c2,500$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…bc37backed No77c2,500$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb546…640bbacked Yes2c2,489$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.03100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5324…cc22backed Yes41c2,467$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick36cpaid+165.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72e7…992bbacked Yes27c2,408$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-55.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3668…c192backed No74c2,400$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97de…906abacked Yes6c2,382$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes26c2,359$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.1414340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a6…4373backed Yes54c2,340$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.051040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,323$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.341,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes2c2,287$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.19861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x868e…5392backed Yes2c2,254$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.57170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ad…35ebbacked Yes13c2,239$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes2c2,229$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.89250%0 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4217…03c9backed No74c2,200$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes5c2,173$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.982683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d1…2b73backed Yes12c2,133$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes24c2,131$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.932240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+43.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee45…e055backed Yes7c2,100$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff0…fa1ebacked Yes1c2,086$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes18c2,056$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.6130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42d…2e9abacked No49c2,053$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes9c2,052$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.078235.4%29 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc504…7a4cbacked No75c2,000$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.752737%10 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa751…aeb9backed Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.