Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe40cfe88ad95a4d1c83bf6b022c7e77e8a658d25166645f36d0b7275cfaf1767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,018,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,055,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,018,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8102…53f2backed Yes | 2c | 39,938$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 0c | 35,146$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…a878backed Yes | 0c | 28,271$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 1c | 20,179$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.79 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 18,383$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.68 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 1c | 17,225$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Yes | 0c | 17,043$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 15,916$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…0795backed Yes | 1c | 15,666$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceec…4ad9backed Yes | 1c | 14,520$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 12,990$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 12,651$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 12,300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 1c | 11,837$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes | 1c | 11,622$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c4…a051backed Yes | 1c | 9,978$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 2c | 9,201$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 8,698$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 1c | 7,349$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 7,263$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…84e7backed Yes | 1c | 7,146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…f584backed Yes | 1c | 7,022$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 6,697$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…640bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…f948backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…fbc2backed Yes | 1c | 5,827$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…e006backed Yes | 1c | 5,618$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes | 3c | 5,262$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 1c | 4,740$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 4,729$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabf…01f7backed Yes | 1c | 4,566$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,548$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…d71ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,381$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03fa…02bbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,047$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,680$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…730cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,513$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…c6f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…72a4backed Yes | 1c | 3,339$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 2c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…9e82backed Yes | 1c | 3,014$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…9fa6backed Yes | 1c | 2,835$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,687$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…8d17backed Yes | 4c | 2,641$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,546$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 1c | 2,537$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,448$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…6974backed Yes | 1c | 2,105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 2,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,933$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…2a44backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 5c | 1,515$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 4c | 1,471$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…c57ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,420$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…7340backed Yes | 2c | 1,295$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…e626backed Yes | 1c | 1,290$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…019ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.29per pick | 12cpaid | +234%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…342cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb2…0e92backed Yes | 1c | 901.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 864.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…7366backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…5a75backed Yes | 3c | 820.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 724.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…8e22backed Yes | 4c | 658.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…ff7abacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5319…d0f6backed Yes | 3c | 549.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.