TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,573,365
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,438,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,573,365 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes6c86,835$4,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,936.151513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes4c80,007$3,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.9410313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes2c76,653$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.283414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes6c57,662$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.5435123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes4c39,244$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes5c37,103$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.263010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69a0…3eafbacked Yes5c33,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.981225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes6c30,225$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c25,412$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.551488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c23,274$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.272290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89da…aac2backed Yes1c21,273$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c18,163$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.046785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes3c18,025$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.57190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c17,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf2…15bbbacked Yes4c14,820$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x799b…d327backed Yes6c13,225$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick18cpaid+243.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaa0a…df43backed Yes3c12,000$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e32…64a5backed Yes4c11,971$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes2c11,826$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503743.2%16 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+189.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes13c11,805$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.827018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes3c11,583$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe418…7bdabacked Yes2c10,417$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.69450%2 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+1,488.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee45…e055backed Yes2c10,258$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.861637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…d639backed Yes3c9,793$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c4…a051backed Yes3c7,949$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78e…6dd0backed Yes8c7,843$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4a…5a75backed Yes4c7,737$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c7,395$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.481490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes3c7,299$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.643998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes3c7,096$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.573522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…fddebacked Yes6c6,185$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.231030%3 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+214.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes0c6,178$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e9…cb1ebacked Yes3c5,580$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes7c5,347$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.816816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4f9…f948backed Yes3c5,270$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x536e…0464backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+104.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb546…640bbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes3c4,709$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.522683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes2c4,361$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes4c4,224$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.511375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaadd…13a2backed Yes7c4,020$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes4c3,800$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.71285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe4…69fbbacked Yes4c3,537$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.35520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c3,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…134dbacked Yes4c3,418$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes3c3,297$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.485012%6 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes1c3,171$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…9138backed Yes2c2,987$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Yes7c2,985$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes4c2,847$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa339…92b6backed Yes4c2,804$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c2,778$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes4c2,613$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.441067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes6c2,558$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.116813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd665…9571backed Yes5c2,486$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef19…f419backed Yes5c2,467$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,429$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.351970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes4c2,285$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.235111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes8c2,270$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.234030%12 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c2,122$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.632581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9455…2530backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9045…d5aebacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa205…c6c6backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes7c2,000$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf53…5e8ebacked Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa9…924ebacked Yes1c1,950$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf998…1f41backed Yes3c1,906$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.25100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d75…f807backed Yes1c1,906$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.62130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d4…7a4fbacked Yes1c1,900$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62c…e626backed Yes3c1,841$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5790%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…f105backed Yes1c1,800$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc717…35f0backed Yes9c1,799$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,774$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.34985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes2c1,744$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.163318.2%6 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes2c1,739$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.97160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c56…6d8bbacked Yes7c1,725$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c41…eeb7backed Yes1c1,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde64…7b54backed Yes7c1,627$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d55…ba61backed Yes1c1,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26de…2db3backed Yes7c1,569$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes6c1,550$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.971693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44be…da5bbacked Yes1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,442$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.481,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fa…6f54backed Yes1c1,400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da4…bb27backed Yes7c1,362$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e8…4744backed Yes1c1,350$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Yes8c1,300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102466.5%3 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c24…8bc8backed Yes1c1,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c1,291$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.791499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c1,273$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41660%0 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e96…e9f8backed Yes7c1,200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.191118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes4c1,161$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.931105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…6c5dbacked Yes10c1,050$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes7c1,048$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.492240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+43.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b92…f584backed Yes2c1,041$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes8c1,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Yes6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f9…1f57backed Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c959.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.07590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.