Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe8fc70af7d343aa76a4da0dd2f43bf68a02c9728827d38089b44595a7cb710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,292,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,842,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,292,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 89,934$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 1c | 50,998$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.99 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8852…cdaebacked Yes | 0c | 40,912$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes | 1c | 30,595$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 19,085$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,345$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…0198backed Yes | 1c | 7,822$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…d336backed Yes | 1c | 7,627$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 1c | 7,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x620a…ec6dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,936$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…28d9backed Yes | 1c | 6,877$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 6,541$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…11c5backed Yes | 1c | 5,569$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 5,472$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,063$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,615$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 1c | 3,453$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 2,327$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,168$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 1c | 1,922$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…312ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,615$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 1c | 1,520$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,294$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…ddb9backed Yes | 2c | 1,211$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…57e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…6a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Yes | 2c | 585$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951b…a78bbacked Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…67b3backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…d9d2backed Yes | 4c | 250.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in February?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.