TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$959,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$964,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $959,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes1c37,487$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.87120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes1c31,571$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.343414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes3c29,679$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes3c27,455$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.6535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes2c26,875$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.63190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes2c25,851$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.393010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes3c17,220$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c16,951$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.396785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x526e…84e7backed Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes3c13,359$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes3c10,922$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.323522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes2c9,693$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.993611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c8,497$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.961693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4551…61babacked Yes0c8,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Yes1c7,678$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c7,037$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.279022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c6,876$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.73998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c4…a051backed Yes1c6,384$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.13306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes3c6,321$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.098713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0486…fbc2backed Yes2c5,856$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes3c5,848$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.041315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7631…003cbacked Yes2c5,375$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c5,347$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.471490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4a…5a75backed Yes3c5,337$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes2c5,002$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.152683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Yes1c4,767$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes2c4,539$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.261285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c4,490$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa62c…e626backed Yes1c4,454$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes2c4,162$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.951375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03fa…02bbbacked Yes2c4,156$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x561c…730cbacked Yes1c4,088$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b48…ecadbacked Yes2c3,995$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes2c3,389$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f5…700cbacked Yes2c2,833$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c2,786$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.922581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes3c2,783$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.196816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbced…14d8backed Yes2c2,530$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Yes4c2,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99466.5%3 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes2c2,431$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes3c2,415$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.542240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+43.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c2,400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,356$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes2c2,329$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.065012%6 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6519…50e1backed Yes2c2,245$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+125%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Yes1c2,180$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes2c1,716$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.66813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be0…0f97backed Yes1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3e…7366backed Yes1c1,590$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,568$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.741,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e2…2cc1backed Yes2c1,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2a…ab50backed Yes2c1,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9732…def8backed Yes1c1,333$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes2c1,264$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd5b…0f93backed Yes1c1,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c1,212$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.981970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes1c1,188$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44e0…59ffbacked Yes2c1,147$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c1,125$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d4…61bbbacked Yes4c1,121$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick7cpaid+154.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d98…f3debacked Yes2c1,105$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes2c1,100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,028$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.932999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…7645backed Yes10c1,025$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f7d…dd82backed Yes2c995$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes10c962.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003644.4%16 W · 20 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+177.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes2c952.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204721.3%10 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…019ebacked Yes2c850$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202740.7%11 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.29per pick12cpaid+234%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Yes4c803$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.38160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1904…23d3backed Yes1c786.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113372.7%24 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes6c767$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.722030%6 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+535.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd603…836dbacked Yes3c741.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick5cpaid+203.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c669.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.011499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0dd…2e52backed Yes5c616.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0524…261ebacked Yes2c579.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick8cpaid+496.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes7c579.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407042.9%30 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b47…af01backed Yes4c552.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+60.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8d…4f17backed Yes4c536.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.151526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Yes3c521.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid+150%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed Yes4c520$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.324656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c1…a3ddbacked Yes4c444.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes3c405.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes3c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8890%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e5…ff7abacked Yes4c333.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc596…c316backed Yes5c268.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4063…cb46backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f1…9fbdbacked Yes4c238.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaecc…8121backed Yes11c177.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.