TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$836,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$795,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $836,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes2c51,998$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.471022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c40,062$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.794754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd359…d361backed Yes3c34,000$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c29,655$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.11488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa776…11c5backed Yes0c28,946$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.89812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c23,958$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.962290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c15,624$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c15,210$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.361015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes3c14,755$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.856816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x074d…0198backed Yes2c13,359$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-88.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c11,713$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.866785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes5c11,465$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.324515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8909…11a2backed Yes4c11,293$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x310e…d336backed Yes2c8,381$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x069f…66bcbacked Yes0c7,844$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes3c5,727$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.18430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes2c5,700$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c5,410$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.231070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…e096backed Yes2c5,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.98200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c4,663$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.523998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes2c4,123$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.711375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c4,064$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.824163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes2c3,896$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7390%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c3,866$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes2c3,848$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.732683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c4…a051backed Yes5c3,733$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,687$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.421490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes2c3,484$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.031285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2034…16dfbacked Yes1c3,014$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.081513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,995$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.541,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8c…03b9backed Yes3c2,980$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd9…1cefbacked Yes4c2,830$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+83.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes3c2,698$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.111067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b34…9e82backed Yes4c2,657$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+112.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes2c2,617$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.576813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c2…7bbbbacked Yes3c2,160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.47714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c2,071$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.579022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a1…5afdbacked Yes3c2,036$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…a577backed Yes4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704425%11 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+241.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x50b6…9272backed Yes4c2,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+114%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…81a1backed Yes2c1,974$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes3c1,791$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.83508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes2c1,768$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.635012%6 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6690…c080backed Yes6c1,650$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c1,647$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa3f…f384backed Yes3c1,504$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Yes4c1,468$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.28160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes1c1,437$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x237e…403cbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,409$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.38985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05fb…9be0backed Yes4c1,400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f52…a2e6backed Yes6c1,343$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+235.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf629…57e3backed Yes1c1,333$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14290%0 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c6f…50dbbacked Yes5c1,258$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e21…9665backed Yes4c1,100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5f…8b27backed Yes6c1,093$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5f…a92fbacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1309…ad99backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…fddebacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601030%3 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+214.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9744…c5cfbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081c…4434backed Yes3c989$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.71450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+137%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes6c981.63$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa62c…e626backed Yes4c950.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…f2c1backed Yes3c946.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd509…5d18backed Yes6c830$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…9b82backed Yes8c763$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes6c753.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c708.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.712999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x431a…6984backed Yes3c706.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20240%0 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299e…3765backed Yes2c645$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b67…e7b5backed Yes3c640$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c638.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.431499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4c…d5dbbacked Yes3c629.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.47048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes7c596.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c0c…c312backed Yes4c568.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25567.1%4 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2d…f266backed Yes3c554.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e2…2cc1backed Yes3c544$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c486$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.488919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a03…b703backed Yes4c421.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Yes4c414.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+222.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes6c400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59955.6%5 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick16cpaid+162.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1035…20dbbacked Yes3c398.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa348…7dbdbacked Yes3c391.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0739…15a0backed Yes5c329.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+247%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes4c328.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.074436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-44.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…019ebacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202740.7%11 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.29per pick12cpaid+234%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202634.6%9 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick15cpaid+125%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4bd5…cb75backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298d…ddb9backed Yes4c238.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e4…068bbacked Yes4c227.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x126b…0962backed Yes10c192.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+69.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c175.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0464812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8652…cdb5backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+182.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106728.4%19 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.