TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,120,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,008,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,120,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c56,933$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.231488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x074d…0198backed Yes1c53,874$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-88.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44fb…4ababacked Yes1c48,422$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.92140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c42,580$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.061015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0867…c3f4backed Yes1c31,605$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+104.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes5c24,355$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.724515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes5c24,000$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2381022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes1c21,295$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.76170%0 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c14,955$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.356785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x310e…d336backed Yes6c13,616$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c12,281$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.28400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c11,525$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.532290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes5c10,664$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.37508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c10,415$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick10cpaid-66.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes7c9,069$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c8,300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.54163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c4…a051backed Yes15c8,196$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c7,418$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.581490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…b7e5backed Yes2c7,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes4c6,844$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.153998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…8253backed Yes2c5,856$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked Yes2c5,432$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf57…77c7backed Yes2c5,198$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.72244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…e096backed Yes6c5,074$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.24200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1989…4c55backed Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c96…1cc1backed Yes4c4,852$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.38137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes3c4,848$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.752683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39ef…99e9backed Yes0c4,667$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes6c4,446$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.872147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+132.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes2c4,363$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.171414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-71.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5b…0f93backed Yes2c4,348$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee10…ae2fbacked Yes9c4,072$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes12c4,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes8c4,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a45…dd1dbacked Yes14c4,000$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes5c3,873$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.35012%6 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes5c3,747$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.691285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ab…a6fdbacked Yes14c3,593$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes4c3,556$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.951375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…fddebacked Yes6c3,204$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.81030%3 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+214.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402313%3 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x518b…cf8abacked Yes7c3,000$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207160%0 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f5…cbbebacked Yes0c2,750$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb339…f437backed Yes8c2,703$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes13c2,596$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.7847721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb541…55f5backed Yes7c2,400$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes10c2,354$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22812129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c2,252$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.082581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes2c2,158$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…4bb1backed Yes5c2,123$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes3c2,069$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.369022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes7c2,031$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.331067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes12c2,027$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2422722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0789…6696backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8d…b8e9backed Yes2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb33…2dcebacked Yes32c1,935$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cd…f566backed Yes10c1,907$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.933917.9%7 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8881…e661backed Yes1c1,900$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d0…d42bbacked Yes2c1,900$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes2c1,833$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.99224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4446…913abacked Yes1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf108…2ff3backed Yes2c1,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes14c1,786$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes1c1,749$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.78160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7285…e263backed Yes2c1,700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb09e…8ea5backed Yes1c1,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd4a…0d11backed Yes10c1,683$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1035…20dbbacked Yes6c1,665$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1be…79ecbacked Yes1c1,650$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2410…64a8backed Yes2c1,650$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8155…9f2dbacked Yes2c1,650$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b0…9ed6backed Yes2c1,600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1024…3a25backed Yes1c1,600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff2…d6e4backed Yes6c1,590$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes5c1,576$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.741165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa62c…e626backed Yes2c1,551$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes19c1,538$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.153030%9 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes12c1,509$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.782516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e4…46a7backed Yes2c1,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44be…da5bbacked Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6be…43c9backed Yes1c1,466$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+117%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x126b…0962backed Yes14c1,451$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+69.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14fb…71e6backed Yes2c1,400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9e…14ebbacked Yes1c1,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c1,393$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.66985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cb…85e4backed Yes14c1,389$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,341$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.481,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee31…d1a4backed Yes1c1,300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd505…352cbacked Yes2c1,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes3c1,242$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.963318.2%6 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes5c1,215$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes4c1,200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes1c1,118$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.391612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes5c1,095$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.021526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-61.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2034…16dfbacked Yes1c1,073$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.811513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8750…8bbcbacked Yes13c1,061$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.921225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2f…8f01backed Yes10c1,051$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c1,013$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.091499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.