AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc66e0bcb4a22f84fbdf9b3c25845ecc1ec6206049dad74c95c70d14e6a82ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 24c | 6,417$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.43 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 2,800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,670$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.88 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 16c | 2,529$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.71 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 19c | 1,634$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.36 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,274$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.36 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 17c | 1,210$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 26c | 694.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 606.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 18c | 564.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 7c | 518.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…3ffabacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 28c | 444.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 16c | 434.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 419.79$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 16c | 396$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 28c | 317.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 300.62$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 29c | 271.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 43c | 260.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes | 36c | 196.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 185.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 51c | 160$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…63fdbacked Yes | 29c | 154.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 153.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 21c | 142.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 72c | 109.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 109.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 105.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 90.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 75.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 26c | 65.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 26c | 64.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 30c | 58.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 28c | 53.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…a67cbacked Yes | 34c | 51.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…5444backed No | 69c | 39.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…03f7backed No | 74c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.