Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31bd8d65516b47c23e800cdadb3fd6eaef6124b6f488527bd77478c8cd9a145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,206 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29ba…5a07backed No | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed No | 1c | 10,200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 59c | 3,804$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.57 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 10c | 2,500$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 11c | 1,400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf61c…bc7dbacked No | 2c | 1,317$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 30c | 1,225$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,139$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.89 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 14c | 740$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…6576backed No | 2c | 731.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 35c | 690.44$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.43 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd4…3fdbbacked No | 3c | 654.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 16c | 649.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…0fd5backed No | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 12c | 599.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked No | 58c | 590$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 43c | 556.81$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.77 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 72c | 553.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 54c | 528.68$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.23 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…6f41backed No | 58c | 515.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 28c | 511$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 70c | 478.92$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.24 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 54c | 459.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 11c | 450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…b4d0backed No | 58c | 415.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 57c | 400.25$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.32 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 41c | 356.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.49 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…db3fbacked Yes | 59c | 346.82$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.73 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 47c | 330.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.59 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…1750backed No | 72c | 323.34$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 45c | 304.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 44c | 299.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 42c | 284$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 42c | 215$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +110%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…a614backed No | 51c | 208.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…b69cbacked Yes | 57c | 205.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…2778backed Yes | 33c | 199.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa829…172abacked No | 56c | 175.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 49c | 173.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…31bebacked Yes | 41c | 152.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…43c1backed Yes | 78c | 141.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +242.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 50c | 139.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…1c04backed No | 66c | 136.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 74c | 135.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…d50abacked No | 60c | 134.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…fcd4backed No | 70c | 114.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 54c | 110.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 35c | 105.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…3365backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 55c | 97.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed Yes | 40c | 97.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…8626backed No | 49c | 93.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 42c | 91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe106…4529backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked No | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 86.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd32…d4cdbacked No | 58c | 86.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 20c | 77.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c69…ae6ebacked No | 64c | 72.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…8e26backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed No | 46c | 67.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…b6f1backed No | 74c | 67.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 42c | 60.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…b2e8backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605f…2ab6backed Yes | 55c | 54.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…3590backed No | 64c | 50.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 67c | 46.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd7…1507backed No | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…21c7backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 51c | 40.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640e…66c1backed No | 71c | 38.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 64c | 38.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…6274backed No | 44c | 37.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…e276backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed No | 35c | 37.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked No | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…65b8backed No | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…39abbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 48c | 32.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…f682backed No | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.