Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2b8749c940797839adcf7d3885336e4234e7a6d5662d9231d54d2085ef14f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 5c | 5,200$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 5,169$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 8c | 3,200$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 7c | 1,099$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 1,046$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 37c | 999$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 21c | 757.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed No | 3c | 744.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 53c | 615.41$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.83 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 38c | 537.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 16c | 516.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 452.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 33c | 421$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 33c | 390$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 64c | 383.89$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 52c | 382.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 37c | 363.89$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…db3fbacked Yes | 71c | 354.9$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 60c | 336.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 63c | 335$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 63c | 334$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 63c | 330$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 67c | 292$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 67c | 290$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…a614backed No | 34c | 285.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe106…4529backed No | 36c | 277.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…b69cbacked Yes | 75c | 267.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 75c | 249.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed No | 39c | 236.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 67c | 229$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…a718backed Yes | 67c | 224.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 62c | 221.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 33c | 210.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed No | 33c | 205.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed No | 50c | 200.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 15c | 152.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…b6f1backed No | 36c | 136.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked No | 38c | 131.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 65c | 130.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 9c | 128.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 72c | 120.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 38c | 119.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…3365backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…fcd4backed No | 36c | 97.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 68c | 94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 84.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…ccf1backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 74c | 56.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…fe89backed No | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…c1e1backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 50.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed No | 27c | 48.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 44c | 45.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…2b19backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2460…f6d8backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 39c | 39.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 56c | 35.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.