Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7048a62f3bebaff21ad1a8fac3e73dde2e65f5e24064c9d7096df3ebca91ecd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,787 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked Yes | 62c | 7,162$4,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,423.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,615$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 1c | 4,332$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 7c | 4,310$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.79 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 2,929$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.6 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…edabbacked Yes | 0c | 2,667$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 4c | 2,204$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…668fbacked No | 80c | 1,926$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…9200backed Yes | 25c | 1,467$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 78c | 1,010$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.75 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…2778backed Yes | 48c | 968.27$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 915.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 77c | 851.58$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.03 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked No | 42c | 714.24$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked Yes | 3c | 540.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 9c | 516.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 7c | 470.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 24c | 430$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 42c | 396.05$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 6c | 368.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 365.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 322.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 50c | 312.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.13 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 217.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 24c | 175$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 24c | 175$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77e7…88adbacked Yes | 31c | 107.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 75c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 63c | 79.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 38c | 60.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 50.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 33.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 32.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed No | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…cfc9backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf852…7683backed No | 42c | 23.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.